Reform UK's polling has slumped to around 24% after a turbulent 12 months, but the party remains bullish about its electoral prospects, targeting 375 seats at the next general election with 125 regarded as the "absolute basement" amount.
Twelve months ago, Reform appeared unstoppable, peaking at 34% in some polls, with Nigel Farage enjoying rockstar treatment at the party conference. Now, the shine appears to be wearing off, with Mr Farage engulfed in a donations scandal that led to his resignation as an MP in July, triggering a by-election in Clacton which he won.
A Year of Change and Challenges
The political landscape has changed dramatically. Keir Starmer is no longer Prime Minister, having been ousted by Andy Burnham, while Robert Jenrick defected from the Conservatives in January and now serves as shadow chancellor. Reform also failed to win two by-elections it had serious aspirations of winning - Gorton and Denton (won by the Greens) and Makerfield (won by Mr Burnham).
The party has also had to grapple with the tragic murder of Ann Widdecombe and a public row between Zia Yusuf and political commentator Tim Montgomerie, who has been suspended from the party.
Conference as a Springboard
This year's party conference, held at Birmingham's NEC next week with more than 12,000 expected to attend, is a significant moment for Reform. One key party figure said: "Like all good champions you've got to be able to take a punch, to roll with them and fight back. This is an opportunity to do that, to get back on the front foot."
Reform has been pumping out serious policy announcements, including measures aimed at slashing the welfare budget, prioritising British workers for social housing, boosting apprenticeships and helping small businesses. The party's original conference slogan, "It's Time For Reform", has been ditched in favour of focusing on the first 100 days of a Nigel Farage government.
Preparing for an Early Election
Reform is preparing hard for a general election it believes could come as soon as next year. A source said: "Nigel has always believed there will be an early election and has been focussing a lot of his efforts on getting the party ready for when that moment comes." This includes a massive push on Facebook, which "worked in Clacton for the by-election".
Mr Farage dwarfs all UK party leaders with around 7.6 million total followers across Facebook, Instagram, X, TikTok and YouTube. Candidates for the first batch of highly winnable seats will be selected and announced soon.
However, there remains a nagging argument about whether the Right should unite to defeat Labour. Kemi Badenoch ruled out doing a "monstrous" deal with Reform, and reports suggested Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni urged her to "be your own woman and stand your ground" against Reform, though Italian officials later pushed back on those claims. Robert Jenrick blasted his former boss for "living in a fantasy world" and said Reform are not interested in entering a pact with the "busted flush" Tories.
Reform will be hoping its conference is scandal-free and can provide the springboard to greater success in the Autumn and beyond.
