Reform UK has edged ahead of Labour in a new YouGov poll, delivering an early setback to Prime Minister Andy Burnham. The survey of 2,300 Great Britain adults, conducted online on August 2-3 for The Times and Sky News, puts Reform on 23% (up one point from July 26-27), Labour on 22% (unchanged), the Conservatives on 19% (down two), the Greens on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 12% (up one).
Poll Details
The figures, produced using YouGov's MRP model, leave all parties within the margin of error of the previous poll but place Reform narrowly in front for the first time in three weeks. The result undercuts the much-hyped 'Burnham bounce.'
The former Greater Manchester mayor seized the Labour leadership and entered No 10 on July 20 after winning the Makerfield by-election and forcing Sir Keir Starmer's resignation.
Government Response
Mr Burnham has spent his first two weeks firing off announcements: removing VAT from electricity bills, reinstating the £2 bus fare cap in England, promising to end rough sleeping, cutting business rates for pubs, launching cross-party talks on social care and establishing 'No 10 North' with extra powers for regional mayors. He also vowed to be 'relentless' against small boat crossings.
However, the poll lands as the Prime Minister prepares to take a holiday abroad after little more than a fortnight in office. Allies insist Mr Burnham will remain in contact with officials and that government business will continue as normal.
Political Reactions
Reform UK chairman Lee Anderson was scathing, stating: "Two weeks into the job and Andy Burnham has already had enough… This isn't a Prime Minister that's serious about leading." Tory leader Kemi Badenoch however has refused to criticise the PM for taking a holiday.
Channel Crossings Plan
The Channel remains a flashpoint. Reform has unveiled 'Operation Fortress,' proposing that the Royal Navy intercept migrant boats and return occupants to France or Belgium. Mr Farage insisted on the plan: "It complies with international law and would save lives and money."
The plan has been widely ridiculed, with defence experts mocking the proposals cover image which included a Royal Navy ship that was sold to Brazil in 2018.
Conservative MP and former British Army officer Ben Obese-Jecty said: "Reform plan to use our River Class OPVs, three are due to be retired in 2028, the other five are deployed globally, including the security of the Falklands. How are Reform going to balance our defence responsibilities - they still have no-one who can talk about it in detail, as this plan shows.
"Interested to see who owns the risk of any fatalities during interdiction of a fragile overloaded dinghy; are Royal Navy personnel expected to shoulder that? How easy is that to do at night? How is their plan different to what Border Force already do?"
France condemned it as a violation of sovereignty. No 10 countered that the Navy had primacy in 2022 with no reduction in crossings and that Border Force officers are better suited to the task, pointing to a near-50% drop in arrivals this year.
Public Opinion
A separate YouGov finding showed just 13% of Britons believe France is genuinely trying to stop the boats, while 62% think it is not.
For Mr Farage the poll is a timely boost as he gears up for the Clacton by-election which he forced. For Mr Burnham it is an early warning that the initial lift from replacing Sir Keir is already fading.
With the next general election still years away, the race remains tight — but Reform is once again setting the pace.
