Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has hailed a "historic change in British politics" following the party's strong performance in the local elections, suggesting the results indicate the party is on track for a general election victory. However, some pollsters have cautioned that the party's support may have already reached its zenith.
With many results still pending, bookmaker William Hill has made Reform UK the odds-on favourite at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next general election. The party has so far gained 423 councillors, while Labour has lost 269 and the Conservatives 183. The Liberal Democrats and Green Party have made modest gains of 32 and 42 respectively.
Key Gains and Losses
Reform UK's successes have come at the expense of both major parties in their traditional heartlands. In Tameside, Greater Manchester, part of former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner's constituency, Labour lost 16 of 17 seats to Reform and lost control of the council. Labour also lost control of Hartlepool, Redditch, and Tamworth. Reform UK gained control of Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Conservatives, with potential further gains in Tory-dominated shire counties.
The geographic spread of Reform's gains, including in Dudley, Southampton, and Plymouth, is seen as evidence of the party's potential at a general election. Keiran Pedley, politics director at Ipsos, noted: "Reform has only been a national party for a couple of years, and so we’re always looking for evidence that they are the real deal. The fact that they are winning convincingly against Labour across the north of England is highly significant, but they are also gaining across the country."
Pollster's Warning
Despite the upbeat mood, pollster Peter Kellner has urged caution. Writing on Substack, he highlighted that Reform UK's share of seats contested in this year's local elections is around 33%, down from 41% last year. He argued that while this year's figure would be astonishing in isolation, the trend suggests the party has peaked.
"Under first-past-the-post, this matters. Our voting system helped Reform last year, when it won a much higher proportion of seats than votes. Its support is now at the point where that bonus has started to shrink. If more voters desert the party, it could suffer badly," Kellner said.
He also offered some relief for Labour, noting that while the party lost half the seats it was defending, it is not as bad as the previous 12 months when it lost three-quarters of defended seats. Labour's support has held up better in areas where Reform is weaker, such as Wigan and Hartlepool, though it still lost all seats in those areas.
As results continue to come in, the full picture of Reform UK's performance will become clearer, but the party's rapid rise appears to be facing its first serious questions about sustainability.
