Twelve months after Reform UK rode high in the polls, the party is preparing for its annual conference in Birmingham's NEC next week, with more than 12,000 expected to attend. The event comes after a turbulent year that saw the party's support slip from a peak of 34% to around 24%, and its leader Nigel Farage resign as an MP before winning back his Clacton seat in a by-election.
Backstage after last year's conference speech, Farage was buoyant, sipping a stiff gin and tonic and joking about saving a new teal-coloured suit for a later event. At that time, his party was riding high, with no serious challenge from the Right and Labour's leadership embroiled in a freebie scandal. Reform's ascent from populist upstarts to the summit of British politics seemed unstoppable.
A year of setbacks
Now, the shine has worn off. Reform failed to win two other by-elections it had targeted – Gorton and Denton, won by the Greens, and Makerfield, where Andy Burnham was victorious. A public row between Zia Yusuf and political commentator Tim Montgomerie, a Tory defector now suspended from the party, erupted during the summer.
The political landscape has also shifted dramatically. Keir Starmer is no longer Prime Minister, having been ousted by Andy Burnham. Robert Jenrick defected from the Conservatives in January and now serves as shadow chancellor. Farage himself faces a potential by-election in the Autumn if the Parliamentary watchdog finds he breached the MPs' code of conduct over a £5 million gift from billionaire backer Christopher Harborne.
Conference reset and policy push
Despite the turmoil, Reform has been announcing serious policy measures in recent weeks, aimed at slashing the welfare budget, prioritising British workers for social housing, boosting apprenticeships, and helping small businesses. The party has ditched its original conference slogan, “It's Time For Reform”, in favour of focusing on the first 100 days of a Farage government, including new high-profile shadow cabinet roles.
One key party figure said: “Like all good champions you've got to be able to take a punch, to roll with them and fight back. This is an opportunity to do that, to get back on the front foot.” Another added: “These announcements show that we are a serious party with serious policies. This is what the conference will be all about.”
Electoral ambitions and the Right-wing split
Reform is preparing for a general election that could come as soon as next year, with a massive push on Facebook to woo voters. Farage's social media reach dwarfs all UK party leaders, with around 7.6 million total followers across platforms. The party is targeting 375 seats at the next election, with 125 regarded as the “absolute basement” amount.
However, the question of whether the Right should unite to defeat Labour remains contentious. Kemi Badenoch ruled out a “monstrous” deal with Reform, and reports emerged that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni urged her to “be your own woman and stand your ground” against Farage – though Italian officials later pushed back on those claims. Robert Jenrick blasted his former boss for “living in a fantasy world” and said Reform are not interested in a pact with the “busted flush” Tories.
Reform will be hoping its conference is scandal-free and provides a springboard to greater success in the Autumn and beyond, as it faces a new Labour leader and an increasingly impressive Badenoch.
