The Parti Québécois (PQ) won Monday's election in Quebec, but its victory fell short of a majority, casting doubt on its promise to hold a referendum on independence and easing immediate fears for Canadian unity.
Impressive but Incomplete Victory
The PQ added 56 seats to its roster and more than doubled its vote share compared to the 2022 election, securing its first taste of power in 14 years. However, the party was left five seats short of a majority, making its pledge to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 nearly impossible.
The party also won with barely 28% of the popular vote, the lowest percentage for any government in Canada's electoral history, according to polling analyst Philippe Fournier. The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that oppose a referendum, reflecting the province's 30-year aversion to another bruising debate about Quebec's place in Canada, particularly amid Trump's tariffs and threats against the country.
Challenges Ahead for the PQ
The result puts not only a referendum in doubt but also a raft of other PQ initiatives, including abolishing the monarchy and applying Quebec's strict language laws to the province's colleges. The new government will also face stiff opposition to its plans to reduce immigration levels, which has angered farmers and the business community.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney remains the most popular politician in the province, largely due to his resistance to Trump. This leaves PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in an awkward position for a separatist: he cannot be seen as a threat to Canadian unity. In his victory speech, he pledged to be a "good-faith collaborator" with the rest of the country and even addressed the crowd in English. He then attempted to court the other side of the debate by announcing Tuesday he would prevent the lieutenant governor, who represents the British crown, from swearing in his new government.
Vote Seen as Punishment for CAQ
"Seventy percent of Quebecers don't want a referendum," said John Parisella, who served as chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and the province's delegate general in New York and Washington. "And every time they see Trump's picture on the screen at night, it does nothing to improve a desire for separation. For a lot of Quebecers, the link with Canada is absolutely crucial, even if it isn't necessarily emotional."
The vote may have less to do with embracing separatism and more about punishing the current government. The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), in power since 2018, collapsed, winning no seats and harvesting just a third of its vote share compared to 2022. Its leader, Christine Fréchette, lost her own riding to the PQ and resigned Tuesday afternoon.
Return to Traditional Divisions
The election suggested a return to normalcy in a province whose political discourse has focused on the federalist-separatist divide. Separatists returned to the PQ fold, while the federalist vote dispersed to the opposition Liberal party and the upstart Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ).
The PCQ feasted on the CAQ's support, winning 19 ridings in the hinterland and the Quebec City area, where leader Éric Duhaime won his seat for the first time. Founded in 2009, the populist party counts a prominent anti-vaxxer and a rage-bating anti-woke radio host as two of its winning candidates. The party broke through partly because of its promise to build an underground highway linking Quebec City to its suburbs across the St Lawrence, despite government reports saying the endeavor would cost as much as C$9.3bn and do little to alleviate traffic.
Montreal went decidedly Liberal red, with leader Charles Milliard regaining seats on the island and in the traditionally English redoubt of the Eastern Townships. The staunchly federalist Liberals, unaffiliated with Carney's federal Liberals, will serve as Quebec's official opposition. Governing with but a handful of seats in the province's biggest metropolis will be challenging enough for the PQ; as history has shown, winning a referendum without it is somewhere near impossible.
Canada faces another potential menace to its sovereignty in less than two weeks, when Alberta holds a "referendum on a referendum" on secession. Polls suggest Albertans are as averse to dalliances with separation as Quebecers have now become to the east, no matter the party they just chose to govern.
