Vladimir Putin's grip on power could change with great speed if mounting tensions inside Russia reach a breaking point, Estonia's intelligence chief has said.
Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, said Russia is facing a combination of battlefield losses, economic pressure and growing dissatisfaction over the war on Ukraine. Although he does not expect a mass uprising on the streets in the immediate future, he reportedly believes a sudden political rupture cannot be ruled out.
Estonia's long watch on Moscow
Rosin has been Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service since 2022. Before that, he spent 27 years serving in the Estonian Defence Forces. His warning comes from a country that has spent decades closely monitoring the threat posed by Moscow.
Estonia shares a lengthy border with Russia and has been a member of NATO since 2004. British troops are also stationed in the Baltic state as part of the alliance's eastern defences.
Battlefield losses and economic strain
Rosin said Russia's battlefield losses were outpacing recruitment while the country's economy was being squeezed by sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on important infrastructure. In his first interview with a British newspaper, he told The Telegraph: “The losses on the battlefield exceed the recruitment numbers.
“The economy has taken a serious hit. One of the reasons is the Ukrainian long-range strikes against oil infrastructure, which is the main income for the Russian budget. There are huge financial problems already. The budget deficit has already exceeded the planned deficit for this year, and it will be, we assess, maybe around 10 trillion rubles [£86bn], which is half of the defence budget.”
Growing discontent across society
He also pointed out: “We see that overall unhappiness levels with this war are increasing in all echelons of society, starting from normal people and throughout, up to the oligarchs. More and more people do not want this war. The question is: what impact does this have on his [Putin's] decision-making?”
When discussing whether the level of discontent might reach a level where Putin's grip on power could be threatened, Rosin said: "I do not see a street revolution happening at this point."
He added: "More important is what people who have access to money, weapons and information – what do they think? In these circles, there is no more talk about total victory. People are discussing different scenarios, and mainly how to end this [war] in a proper way."
Rapid change possible
However, he added: “But I would say, if something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised. It will be an overnight thing, if it ever happens.”
If Western countries continue supporting Ukraine, increase defence spending and maintain a credible deterrent, Rosin believes Russia can continue to be contained. But any weakening of Western unity could encourage the Kremlin to reassess its calculations.
