Russian President Vladimir Putin fears for his own survival if he fails to achieve the Kremlin’s minimum objective of capturing the entirety of the Donbas. He told sources close to him: "They’re going to hang me", a Kremlin insider told The Economist.
Escalation and troop deployments
In a bid to end the war in Ukraine, Putin has chosen a path of escalating the conflict in an attempt to break the deadlock on the battlefield. Russian sources say Putin intends to deploy an additional 300,000–400,000 troops to the conflict, with the country reportedly suffering heavy losses.
Around 6,000 more troops are being killed or wounded each month than the military is able to replace through recruitment.
Growing discontent among the elite
Discontent over the war is also reportedly growing in Russia, while the mood among the country’s elite has become even more pessimistic. Regardless of the eventual outcome, nearly five years of fighting have led some members of Russia’s elite to question the campaign’s progress and overall success.
One source said the Kremlin’s biggest problem may not be the state of the economy or the lack of decisive military victories, but rather the amount of time the war has dragged on. Another anonymous source described the growing sentiment as a feeling that “the Tsar is empty.”
Economic strain and recent attacks
Putin has been grappling with elevated inflation and a struggling economy as it deals with the fallout from sanctions and attacks from Ukraine. Russia’s economy is slowing sharply, with the highest interest rates in two decades driving up debt levels.
Its largest railway network is also edging closer to bankruptcy. Once a major economic engine, Russian Railways (RZD) is plunging deeper and deeper into financial trouble. RZD’s debt has surged to nearly four trillion rubles (£32 billion), meaning the company is in its deepest crisis in 16 years.
Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched nearly 2,000 drones, more than 1,600 bombs, and dozens of missiles in Ukraine last week, as he vowed to seek “just responses to every Russian strike”. At least 38 people were killed and 20 injured, including two children, in a Russian attack on Kyiv on Saturday. The explosion damaged about 130 homes in the village of Myla.
