The market town of Ashton-in-Makerfield, near Wigan, is at the centre of a political battle that could determine the future of the Labour Party. The Makerfield byelection, triggered by Josh Simons stepping down, is more than just a local contest; it is a test of whether Labour can halt the advance of Reform UK under Nigel Farage.
A Proof of Concept for Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham, the most popular Labour politician in the country, is standing in the seat where he grew up. His candidacy is a deliberate attempt to prove that a new direction and leadership can win back voters who have drifted to Reform. If Burnham cannot secure victory, Labour MPs fear the party's electoral problems run deeper than Keir Starmer.
Labour MPs who campaigned in Hindley Green and Winstanley described the fight as existential. One MP admitted, "I cannot tell you I'm not worried. This is going to be really tight. Honestly, it doesn't bear thinking about if we can't win."
The Challenge from Reform
Reform won 50% of the vote across Makerfield in the 7 May local elections and gained 24 seats on Wigan Council, including two wards in Ashton-in-Makerfield. Pollsters initially gave Labour a 5% chance of holding the seat at the next general election. Burnham's candidacy has improved those odds, but the most recent poll puts him just a couple of points ahead of Reform.
Local activists note that while Labour's vote share held up, turnout rose in some wards due to previous non-voters backing Reform. However, Burnham has an advantage: many Reform voters in the local elections also supported him in the Greater Manchester mayoral election two years ago, where he won 66% of the vote in Wigan.
The Stakes for Labour
Winning Makerfield is Burnham's proof of concept. He believes a new direction for Labour can stop the march of Nigel Farage and an impending Reform government. If he fails, Labour MPs will have to confront whether anything can stop Reform from taking power—a dark prospect that keeps many awake at night.
Burnham has told those close to him that he always wanted to fight a Reform-facing seat like Makerfield, where he spent his youth and where his children attend school. He could have chosen a safer seat in Rusholme or Withington, where the main challengers are the Greens, but that would not prove what is needed.
The Green Factor
The Greens remain part of the equation. If they mount a strong campaign in Makerfield, Burnham must also prove he can win back Green voters disillusioned by Labour, convincing them he is the man to defeat Reform. As Simons puts it, this is "the fight of our times," and only by winning can Burnham change the course of history.
Labour MPs from across the north-west and Burnham's soft-left wing have descended on the seat this weekend, even before Burnham has been formally selected as the candidate. The reality of what is at stake is sinking in. One Burnham supporter said, "Somehow I have to accept that I cannot control this byelection outcome. But easier said than done."
An MP who spent a day campaigning in the constituency added, "We are speaking to voters who only voted Reform a week ago and trying to convince them to return to Labour. That is a very big ask. We know we are going to be facing a very nasty and divisive campaign."
The Makerfield byelection is a defining moment for Labour. It is hard to think of a comparable electoral moment where a single constituency could determine the future of a major political party.
