As Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva prepares to seek a fourth term as Brazil's president, his longtime friend Frei Betto has voiced fears for the country's future under another Bolsonaro presidency. The theologian, who has known Lula for over four decades, warns that a victory for Jair Bolsonaro's son, Flávio, could bring back a neo-fascist government and align Brazil with the US.
On 4 October, just weeks before his 81st birthday, Lula will run in his seventh presidential election since 1989. He previously lost three campaigns before winning in 2002 and 2006, then staged a comeback in 2022 by defeating Jair Bolsonaro. Now, he faces Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator, with the pair neck and neck in the polls.
Frei Betto's Prediction and Fears
Betto, whose full name is Carlos Alberto Libânio Christo, recalls telling Lula on 1 January 2023 that it would be his penultimate term. Lula laughed it off, insisting it was his last, but Betto was certain he would stand for a fourth. "And sure enough, he did," Betto said last month.
Betto remains confident Lula will win, saying, "Politics is his calling. He's a political animal – he breathes it 25 hours a day." However, he fears the consequences if his prediction is wrong. "What's at stake is the return of a neo-fascist government that washed its hands during the pandemic and dismissed as insignificant the deaths of 700,000 people in Brazil from Covid-19," he said of Jair Bolsonaro's administration.
US Influence and Latin America
Betto's greatest fear is that a second Bolsonaro presidency would help Donald Trump tighten his grip on Latin America. He believes it would bring "complete alignment with the US," making Brazil "what Venezuela is today: an American protectorate." He predicts "a devastating wave of privatisations" and worsening social issues.
This week, Lula's campaign accused Trump of seeking to "colonise" Brazil and sway the election in Bolsonaro's favour to capture its natural resources.
Dictatorship Residue and Left's Retreat
Betto also worries that Brazil's failure to punish those responsible for abuses during the 1964-85 military regime has left the door open to future power grabs. "There's a very strong dictatorial residue in the Brazilian armed forces ... that could resurface at any moment," he said.
The civilians and soldiers responsible for the failed 2023 coup were arrested, tried and jailed, with Jair Bolsonaro receiving a 27-year sentence. Betto warns that all of this "could be overturned with Flávio Bolsonaro's election, because he would have the power to pardon them."
Betto, who was jailed twice during the dictatorship, says part of the blame for the far-right's advance lies with the left, which has lost ground to evangelical churches and conservative forces in poor communities. "We have to go back to the favelas," he said.
He also worries Lula has failed to groom an heir. "I don't see anyone in the Workers' party today who has his charisma or political potential," he said. Betto hopes Lula wins and will do everything he can to make that happen, but admits, "things aren't easy."
