Keir Starmer and his wife, Victoria, cast their votes in the local council elections at Westminster Chapel, London, on 7 May 2026. If Labour now decides the prime minister is no longer up to the job, there is just one problem: neither is anyone else, writes Gaby Hinsliff.
The Grim Weekend Ahead
This is set to be an ugly weekend for British politics. How ugly will become clear by Saturday night, when enough votes are counted to judge whether Starmer's government has suffered merely a midterm setback or a full-blown collapse, and what dark forces may have been unleashed. Even non-Labour voters should worry about local elections where many candidates expressed extreme views.
Enemies Gather
Fear of long-term consequences explains why the prime minister's enemies were gathering before polls closed. Angela Rayner is expected to make an intervention this weekend. Wes Streeting, preferred by many ministers, reportedly has a shadow operation ready. Next week, the soft-left Mainstream grouping will publish what looks like a manifesto for Andy Burnham via a report on 'Manchesterism'. Though Starmer is digging in, the idea of him leading into another general election seems unlikely, prompting calls to get the inevitable over with.
Why Triggering a Contest Now Is a Mistake
Yet triggering a leadership contest now would be a mistake. Not all potential players are on the pitch; Burnham should be given time to return to parliament. A swift coronation may look clean, but it did Gordon Brown no favours in 2009, and a full contest would have stress-tested Theresa May in 2016. The better reason to hesitate is to avoid blowing up in Labour's face.
What if Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski respond by demanding a general election, accusing Labour of clinging illegitimately to power? What if Farage whips his fanbase into fury at a squatter prime minister? Governments should not be held hostage, but rerunning the exclusive process that let Tory members repeatedly change leaders would be madness. The 99% of Britons who are not party members need a voice.
The Challenges Ahead
Whoever leads Labour and Britain through the next three years may navigate a recession or war while delivering the change promised in 2024. They must tackle the cost of living, raise billions for defence, likely breaking manifesto tax promises, and convince bond markets Britain is not bust. In nonexistent spare time, they must unite an angrily polarised country. None of the current contenders look entirely ready, nor does the current prime minister. Labour has a moral duty to resolve this conundrum. If it bundles out a democratically elected PM, what follows must be a genuine contest geared to the actual job.
Reforming Leadership Contests
Having chaired Labour leadership hustings in 2010 and 2015, the current format—candidates traipsing around for social media clips while members dwell on big-picture ideas—seems unfit. Across all parties, contests test candidates' ability to find their side's erogenous zones while missing crucial questions.
How do candidates make decisions? That is what being prime minister consists of: judgment call after judgment call. Too late we discovered Starmer dislikes taking political decisions, May relied on chiefs of staff, and Johnson agreed with whoever he was talking to. What do parliamentary colleagues know that we should? Tory MPs tried to warn about Liz Truss in 2022, but members ignored them. Can candidates convince the overwhelming majority who say they would not vote Labour to give them a chance? If not, pressure for an early general election will become overwhelming.
US-style open primaries may be a step too far, but public events open to all would test how prospective leaders handle hostile voters and build a mandate. All this takes time, and by weekend's end, Labour MPs may conclude they have none. But they must remember they are choosing a prime minister for the country, not just a party leader. Spin that roulette wheel too soon, and it will not land on red.
Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnist.
