Israeli authorities have charged two suspects with security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice for allegedly using classified information to place bets on the timing of military operations on the prediction market Polymarket. The case has raised concerns about insider trading in war-related betting.
The Charges and the Suspects
One suspect is Omer Ziv, a 30-year-old from Tel Aviv who worked as an affiliate marketing manager in the online gambling industry. The second defendant is a major in the Israeli air force reserves, whose identity remains undisclosed on national security grounds. Prosecutors allege that Ziv and the major used confidential information to profit from bets on strikes involving Iran and Israel between June 2025 and January 2026.
How the Scheme Unfolded
According to the indictment, Ziv and the major met while working at a gaming tech company. In June 2025, Ziv brought a Polymarket question about Israeli military action against Iran to the major's attention. The major, then on active emergency service, allegedly shared classified information about the timing of strikes, while Ziv placed bets using his own funds across multiple Polymarket accounts. The pair communicated via WhatsApp, with the major urging Ziv to increase bets before a strike. Ziv also told friends to keep quiet, saying, "so we don't go to jail."
The bets paid off, with profits of around $128,000 from the first strike alone. Over 12 days of conflict, the pair allegedly made over $152,000 in total. They later placed similar bets during Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen.
Suspicion and Arrest
In early January 2026, suspicion grew as Polymarket users speculated that the bets were based on insider knowledge. Ziv cancelled positions and changed usernames, and the pair deleted messages and photos. Ziv was arrested after attending a gambling conference in Barcelona, and the major was detained shortly after.
Legal and Ethical Implications
Ziv faces an additional charge of aggravated espionage, which carries a potential life sentence. Only a handful of Israelis have ever been convicted of this crime. The case highlights the lack of legal precedent for war gambling and the ethical concerns of turning death into financial derivatives. Blockchains, while anonymous, are permanent ledgers, allowing authorities to trace transactions and subpoena user details from exchanges.
Both defendants have argued selective enforcement, and their lawyers have raised concerns about the conduct of investigative authorities. The major's lawyers stated their client made significant contributions to state security and expressed confidence that the case would end differently.
The case underscores the broader risks of prediction markets tied to military action, where sensitive intelligence may be divulged for profit, blurring the line between speculation and exploitation.
