Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali is the overwhelming favourite to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 9, with Green Party leader Zack Polanski facing an uphill battle to pull off a shock victory.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has injected a mood of optimism into Labour’s ranks and among millions of voters, with polls showing some of those who deserted the party during Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership are now returning.
Labour’s campaign momentum
Burnham has thrown his troops large slabs of succulent Red meat, seizing the properties of landlords ripping off tenants with homes in dismal condition, putting failing water companies back into public ownership, a huge council house building programme and setting up a National Care Service. Exactly how the new Prime Minister intends to pay for his radical Left-wing reforms is far from clear, but as far as the north London by-election goes that is probably of little concern.
So the by-election omens are not looking good for Polanski, who just weeks ago threw his hat into the ring to be the next MP for Holborn and St Pancras. It was a bold move, even then. The Greens are stronger further to the east in the capital.
Green Party setbacks
Events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted at the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Polanski being barred from entering Israel, are likely to have only damaged his electoral prospects in north London. His decision not to take part in the vote on the motion, instead leaving the party’s rally in Brighton to campaign in the by-election, also hardly smacks of firm leadership.
For Polanski to pull off an historic victory, in what has been a Labour seat since its creation in 1983, would need the cards to fall almost perfectly in place for him. Of course, he may still win, that is the nature of political shocks. And after all, Labour chiefs were adamant they were going to win the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, only to be beaten hands down by the Greens.
Polling and prospects
But the bookies have Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council, as the overwhelming favourite to be giving the victor’s speech in the early hours of Friday, October 9. Two recent polls have also suggested that if there was a general election tomorrow, the Greens would get zero MPs in London. They may come second in around twenty or so constituencies across the capital. But under the first-past-the-post electoral system there are no prizes for second place and the two surveys add further weight to the view that Polanski is very much fighting an uphill battle.
If the Green Party leader is going to be defeated, then all eyes will be on the margin of the loss. If he can keep it down to a few thousand, he can argue that Holborn and St Pancras was always a long shot and that he might fare better in Hackney or Lewisham at the next general election. But if he trails Abdi-Wali by a hefty margin, he will inevitably face growing questions about his leadership.
Initially, he may just be politically wounded, as was the former MP for this corner of north London, Sir Keir, by political setbacks, revolts and by-election losses. But in the brutal world of politics, loser leaders tend not to last long.
