British politics remains trapped in the turmoil of the past decade. The resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns signals a lack of cabinet support for the chancellor's budget plans, amplifying the significance of next week's Makerfield by-election. The by-election is widely seen as a platform for Andy Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party.
Healey's Lone Battle
Healey is not the first defence secretary to fight for his budget alone. However, Starmer's conflict with his colleagues is personal, driven by rivals eager to exploit his unpopularity. Burnham has indicated that a by-election victory would trigger a leadership vote, and party members seem ready for change. A small Lancashire town thus holds the power to orchestrate a Downing Street coup.
Constitutional Eccentricities
The British constitution now appears deceptive. Starmer's 174-seat majority, comparable to Tony Blair's 1997 win, was achieved with only 33% of the popular vote in 2024—fewer votes than in 2019 when Labour lost under Jeremy Corbyn. Labour's 411 MPs owe their seats not to a leftward swing but to a split on the right, largely thanks to Reform UK's Nigel Farage. Historian Anthony Seldon notes that majorities over 50 tend to be insecure, and Starmer has 200 backbenchers in vulnerable constituencies.
Rebellions and Suspensions
Starmer's majority quickly became a nightmare for whips. Within three weeks, he suspended seven rebels over the two-child benefits cap. Further revolts followed on winter fuel allowances, personal independence payments, trade union rights, and Gaza policy. Over two years, a dozen MPs have been suspended.
History of Political Assassinations
Labour has mocked the Tories for their habit of ousting leaders—Heath, Thatcher, Major, May, Johnson, and Truss all fell to internal coups. Labour, by contrast, has never formally voted out a leader; most resigned after election defeats or colleague pressure. The closest threat was under Michael Foot in 1981, when the Gang of Four left to form the SDP.
Flawed Leadership Selection
The nation's leaders are chosen by fewer than 250,000 party members, while MPs merely vet nominees. This eccentric system gave the Tories Iain Duncan Smith, Johnson, and Truss, and Labour Foot and Corbyn. A change at No. 10 now would be damaging, as most PMs make their biggest mistakes in the first two years. Britain has endured a decade of such turmoil; repeating it would be madness.
