The Green Party leader Zack Polanski risks losing votes to George Galloway in the London by-election contest, a split that could hand victory to Labour in Holborn and St Pancras.
The by-election, scheduled for October 8, was triggered in the previously safe Labour seat. Labour's candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, is the bookmakers' firm favourite, but by-elections are notoriously difficult to predict and political experts are divided over the likelihood of a Labour win.
Experts split over Green chances
Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK, sounded an optimistic note for the Greens. Stressing that Mr Polanski is a “high-profile challenger”, he said: “This is a constituency dominated by progressive voters, with a sizeable student population, and Polanski is unlikely to have run unless he believed there was a genuine opportunity. He may not be the favourite, but he certainly has a plausible path to making this a real contest and could win.”
He added: “The key question is whether progressive voters in this seat buy the argument that backing the Greens is the most effective way to push Labour further to the Left or if Andy Burnham’s recent bounce in the polls ultimately carries Labour through.”
Galloway's impact on the radical Left vote
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, believes Mr Polanski’s “personal appeal” may boost votes for the Green Party but that winning is still likely to be an “uphill struggle” for him.
“Labour's Abdi-Wali is a fairly strong favourite for the Holborn & St Pancras by-election but Polanski isn't out of it,” he said. “Even at their polling peak this would not have been a top target for the Greens who are stronger a bit further to the East and the Greens poll numbers have dipped considerably since Burnham replaced Starmer.”
George Galloway’s decision to contest the seat could further dent Mr Polanski’s chances of victory. Dr Kelly explained: “The presence of George Galloway on the ballot for the Worker's Party should also take some of the radical Left vote, but his appeal is unlikely to be as strong in Central London as in de-industrialised parts of the North. His support in Glasgow cratered to 0.4% this year which might be a better indicator than his 2024 performance in Rochdale (when he was elected the MP).”
Small margins could decide the contest
Even so, elections can be won by small margins. It was just six votes in Runcorn and Helsby. Money clearly points towards a Labour win but if Mr Polanski can gain momentum in the days ahead of polling, the contest could still be close. If it is, then the votes which Mr Galloway may pick up, which are expected to be at least in the hundreds, if not a few thousands, could prove to be a decisive factor.
