Nigel Farage's decision to force a by-election in Clacton is a calculated gamble that could pay off handsomely, as polls show him leading despite a record number of candidates. Voters on Thursday will choose from 34 candidates, the highest number ever in a by-election, but only two matter: Farage and "Count Binface" (Jonathan Harvey), the comedy writer who has become the local focus of opposition.
A Record Field, But Only Two Contenders
Besides the Reform UK leader, the ballot includes three Official Monster Raving Loony candidates, 20 independents, and representatives from various tiny parties. The major parties have chosen not to stand, leaving Farage and Binface as the main rivals.
A Survation poll suggests Binface will get around 20% of the vote, while 73% of local voters say they will back Farage. The survey also found Reform would still get 57% even if other parties were standing, with the Conservatives a distant second on 11%.
Farage's Strategy: Defiance and Voter Anger
Farage claims he faces an unprecedented barrage of false allegations designed to drive him out of politics. He hopes to return to Parliament with constituents' backing, rejecting establishment attempts to bring him down. He told me that Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch made a massive error by refusing to stand a candidate in the constituency, where Tories won 72.3% in 2019.
"A lot of voters on the door say they are deeply insulted there is not a Conservative candidate," he said. "The Conservatives don't want a general election, and they haven't put a candidate up here. So I think long term, they've made a really bad error."
He criticized traditional parties for promoting Binface, noting that Lib Dem leader Ed Davey officially endorsed him. "A lot of voters say to me, hang on, this isn't a joke. Whether you agree with Nigel's reasons for calling the by-election or disagree, it is an election," Farage said, emphasizing that 80,000 local taxpayers deserve a real contest.
The Funding Controversy and Its Impact
The by-election follows controversy over a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne. Farage did not declare it in the register of MPs' interests because it was received before he entered Parliament. Critics say he should have declared it anyway. The Parliamentary Standards Commissioner is investigating, but the inquiry has paused during the by-election and will resume if he is re-elected.
However, when I visited Clacton, most voters couldn't care less. Some argued he needed funding for security, while others said all politicians accept gifts. A Survation survey found Reform voters from 2024 are even more likely to back him now, perhaps because they share his belief in an establishment plot.
A Return to Maverick Roots
This by-election marks the return of Nigel Farage the maverick, taking on the establishment. It's a return to what made him popular: charisma, straight-talking, and willingness to say things others shy away from, like criticizing free housing for illegal Channel crossers.
For the past 18 months, Farage has aimed to make Reform look like a government-in-waiting, building a "shadow cabinet" and delivering careful policy statements. This worked, with polls showing Reform leading, but recent polling shows Reform is now neck and neck with Labour, and the Conservatives may be catching up. A YouGov survey in late July found 21% would back the Conservatives, 22% Reform.
Bold Policy and Future Plans
Farage has returned to his no-nonsense approach, exemplified by the announcement that a Reform government would employ the Royal Navy to send migrants back to France. The French government called it "a violation of French sovereignty as well as a violation of maritime law and international law," but Reform is sticking to its guns. Farage hopes right-winger Marine Le Pen, favourite to win France's Presidential election next May, will do a deal with a future Reform government.
Once the by-election is over, the battle for a general election resumes. Farage looks forward to September's party conference in Birmingham, promising it will be "by far the biggest party conference that any party in Britain is capable of putting on." He plans to talk more about defence, foreign policy, and policing.
"You'll see us weathering the onslaught and the storm and getting ourselves ready for the future," he said. "Taking a party that almost doesn't exist and turning it into a full professional machine is not an overnight thing. We've made huge progress over the course of the last two years. There is further to go. And within the next few months, you'll see the next steps."
