Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is expected to win the Clacton by-election, but his decision to resign as the constituency's MP just over a month ago could backfire if voter turnout is low or his majority is smaller than anticipated.
Farage's gamble
Mr Farage triggered the by-election after quitting as MP, a move expected to cost well north of £200,000. His main opponent is Count Binface, the satirical character created by comedian Jon Harvey, as the four main parties decided not to field candidates.
Reform activists were deployed from dawn, with some encouraged to holiday in Clacton to support field operations. Others were diverted from the Greater Manchester mayoral contest. In total, 34 candidates are standing, with the result expected as late as 6am on Friday.
Two hurdles
Experts say Mr Farage faces two challenges: achieving a turnout within five to ten percentage points of a normal by-election, and securing a large majority. Reform sources believe he needs to reach that turnout level to justify his resignation.
At the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last spring, which Reform won, turnout was just over 46%. Polling expert Lord Hayward points to comparables: David Davis's 2008 by-election in Haltemprice and Howden, where he won with 72% of the vote, and Douglas Carswell's 2014 Clacton by-election, where he gained 59.2% with 64.2% turnout.
Strategic genius or misjudgment?
Lord Hayward believes these set benchmarks of around 70% of the vote and 21,000 constituents. "He has to be at their level or above," he said. "If he exceeds them he will be in a stronger position. If the turnout is low, he has got to explain why it's low."
Gawain Towler, a long-time Farage ally, called the resignation a possible "stroke of strategic genius," arguing it makes a second by-election less likely if Mr Farage faces suspension over a £5 million donation probe. He denies any wrongdoing.
However, the decision has exposed him to ridicule, with the contest turning into a showdown against Count Binface. Some Tory voters plan to switch to Mr Farage to have a serious MP. The by-election has also spotlighted Mr Farage's financial affairs, and he may have misjudged that other parties would not stand.
