Reform UK has surged in the general election polls following Nigel Farage's return to frontline politics, according to a new survey for i. The poll, conducted by BMG Research, shows the Conservatives trailing Labour by 19 points, with Reform UK in third place on 16 per cent, up five points from the previous week.
The survey, carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday after Farage announced his candidacy and leadership of Reform, indicates that the Tories have dropped four points. Labour leads with 42 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats remain on 9 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.
BMG’s Yiota Papouridou said: “With Farage’s return, the Conservatives’ electoral prospects look truly dire. If our result were repeated on 4 July, this would likely result in the Conservatives’ worst election result in history, reducing them to fewer than 100 seats.” She added that squeezing the Reform vote would be challenging for Rishi Sunak, as many Reform voters are economically left-wing but anti-immigration, and Sunak's ratings among this group are half those of Farage.
Despite Sunak outperforming Sir Keir Starmer in the first television debate, according to 40 per cent of viewers, his net popularity rating remains at -40 compared to Starmer's -1. A Conservative campaign source warned: “A vote for Reform is a vote for Labour.”
BMG Research interviewed 1,534 GB adults online between 4 and 5 June. The poll suggests that while Reform may win few seats, a split in the right-of-centre vote could help Labour and the Liberal Democrats gain more seats.
