Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, has adopted a combative stance in trade talks with the United States, a role that former colleagues say is unsurprising given his determined character. Standing before a walnut-veneered lectern, Carney announced that negotiations with Canada's largest trading partner had collapsed, vowing that America's attempts to "break us so that they can own us" would never succeed.
A wartime leader emerges
During a press conference, a reporter noted the sombre, combative tone of his speech, asking why it felt like Carney was going to war. The prime minister responded: "We were attacked. You're at war when you get attacked. We got attacked."
The transformation of an economist and central banker with no prior electoral experience into a powerful global politician has bucked precedent. Carney has settled into the role of a wartime leader standing up to an adversary seen as erratic and vindictive. After trade negotiations broke down, both sides traded recriminations and imposed new tariffs. In a recent act of antagonism, Trump signed an executive order directing the US federal government to rename Lake Ontario as "Lake America."
Carney, in walking away from the proposed deal, dared Trump and the US to test Canada's resolve. "We cannot accept what they have offered, and we will not give what they have asked," he said.
Determination rooted in background
For those who have worked with the demanding central banker, such a calculated refusal to accede to a bad deal comes as little surprise. Raised in Canada's western prairies, Carney's story of an outsider gradually working his way into powerful institutions offers clues to a man unwilling to accept terms set by others.
"He was pretty doggedly determined," said one person who worked alongside Carney when he was serving as UN special envoy for climate action in 2021. The former colleague noted Carney could turn on the charm when needed but was "pretty diplomatic, when dealing with people that he knows he's got to influence." The same source said it was no shock to see Carney standing up to Trump: "It doesn't surprise me … and I think it's because of that determination and that unwillingness to back down."
Carney was not always so sure-footed. When handpicked as governor of the Bank of England in 2013, his hard-driving approach did not naturally fit the venerable institution. Traits acquired during his days at Goldman Sachs have continued into his tenure as prime minister. He remains an early riser, a dedicated runner, and demands that ministers know their files front to back, according to those who work with him.
Political instincts tested
Carney's career in powerful institutions reflects a sharp, analytical mind, but his tenure at the Bank of England showed he was willing to become political when necessary. When he overhauled the Bank's communications strategy, introducing "forward guidance," it was not immediately embraced as a success. Labour MP Pat McFadden accused the Bank under Carney of baffling investors and the public with mixed messages.
In October 2015, with the Brexit referendum looming, Carney used a speech at Oxford University to underline the benefits of EU membership. Brexiters seized on his comments as an unwarranted intervention. When Carney suggested Brexit might plunge the UK into recession, Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin wrote to the governor urging him to butt out. Carney's reply displayed the same relish for a fight seen in his handling of Trump, accusing Jenkin of "a fundamental misunderstanding of central bank independence as enshrined in statute."
There was no Brexit recession, something many economists attributed partly to the Bank's robust response, including rapid interest rate cuts and quantitative easing. Charles Randell, who spent five years on the board of the Prudential Regulation Authority chaired by Carney, called him "one of the most impressive people I've ever worked with," noting his "masterpiece in strategic messaging" on the morning after the Brexit vote.
Retaliation and public support
Joseph Steinberg, a professor of economics at the University of Toronto, said Carney "did not shy away from trying to tell kind of the hard economic truths" during the Brexit debate but has leaned heavily on the sovereignty angle in the current trade war. Steinberg pointed out that Canada will take a far more painful blow than the US from retaliation, but noted Canadians are likely to be "extraordinarily intolerant of making any kind of concessions to the US whatsoever."
In January, Carney warned at Davos that "compliance will not buy safety" in a world dominated by hegemonic powers, a speech seen as a thinly veiled critique of Trump. His prescription of forging deep relations with like-minded "middle powers" has already taken shape in Canada, described by pollster David Coletto as a "wartime-footing government without a war." Carney has abandoned many policies of his predecessor Justin Trudeau, including carbon and electric vehicle mandates, fast-tracked large projects including an oil pipeline, and invested tens of billions more into defence.
Coletto noted that Carney's approval rating has sustained itself through the period, saying, "I've been surprised with his nuanced read of the country. He's been adept at being not just politically effective but in holding his support together through a trying time." Polling shows Carney remains the leader Canadians trust most to steer the country through economic uncertainty. In his recent address, he said: "Canadians don't submit to the weather – we thrive in it. We don't wait to see which way the wind is blowing. Or surrender ourselves to the waves to be storm-tossed by events. We set our own course. We make our own weather. In Canada, we are masters in our own home, from coast to coast to coast."
