Kemi Badenoch has ruled out any electoral pact with Nigel Farage's Reform UK, but recent polling suggests the right-of-centre vote is split, raising questions about the Conservatives' route back to power.
Badenoch draws a line
Speaking at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham on Tuesday, Badenoch firmly rejected the idea of joining forces with Reform. "We are not uniting with that," she said. She added that she would "rather have another General Election than do a deal with Reform UK" if the next election left the Conservatives needing an agreement with Farage's party.
Badenoch argued that the Conservatives and Reform are fundamentally different, telling the conference: "They are not like us. We are not like them." Her comments draw a clear line between the two parties ahead of the next General Election.
Polling shows divided right
However, the latest polling shows support on the right is currently divided between the two parties. An Opinium voting-intention poll conducted between September 30 and October 2 put Labour on 30%, Reform on 25% and the Conservatives on 17%.
Another Ipsos poll conducted in September gave Labour 27%, Reform 23% and the Conservatives 21%. The figures show the competition between the Conservatives and Reform for voters who may otherwise support a right-of-centre party.
Electoral system matters
Under Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system, votes are counted constituency by constituency, meaning national vote share does not directly translate into seats in Parliament. The division of votes between parties can therefore be significant in closely fought constituencies.
Badenoch has nevertheless made clear that she intends to fight the next election as Conservative leader without an electoral pact with Reform. She criticised Farage's party during her conference speech and rejected calls for the Conservatives to "unite the right".
The Conservative leader also said she would prefer another general election to compromising with Reform in a hung Parliament scenario. The question could become particularly important if neither party secures enough seats to govern alone.
For now, however, there is no agreement between the Conservatives and Reform, and Badenoch has explicitly ruled one out.
