Andy Burnham has tied himself in knots over Scottish independence, handing a gift to the SNP, according to Deputy Political Editor Chris McCall. The Prime Minister suggested to MPs that a second independence referendum could be held if public opinion showed demand for it. For First Minister John Swinney, it was like Christmas arriving three months early.
PM's comments prompt letter from Swinney
The Prime Minister's comments, made in response to SNP MP Chris Law, prompted the First Minister to write to Downing Street calling for talks on how an “agreed legal mechanism” for such a vote could be agreed. That letter came after Burnham indicated that Scotland should be in “exactly the same situation” as Northern Ireland – where the Good Friday Agreement sets out that a border poll can be held when the Northern Ireland Secretary determines there is "a clear consensus in the country".
Burnham later wrote to Swinney to insist he had been “simply highlighting that there is no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland”. But the story has not gone away. Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth yesterday said the Labour leader had "let the cat out of the bag" and claimed that "for the first time since 2014, a British Prime Minister has accepted that Scotland’s constitutional future is for the people of Scotland to decide".
Labour leaders' history of constitutional flip-flopping
Burnham has now learned an important lesson when it comes to the constitution – give the SNP an inch on independence, and they will take a mile. But he is far from the first Labour leader to find his words on the constitution being pulled apart. Jeremy Corbyn caused consternation among party colleagues north of the Border in March 2017 when he said it would be "absolutely fine" if the SNP called another vote on separation. By May that year he had backtracked and declared an IndyRef2 was "unwanted and unnecessary", insisting Labour would "campaign tirelessly to ensure Scotland remains part of the UK".
In 2019, Corbyn suggested that if he entered Downing Street, he would not allow a second referendum during the "first term" of a Labour government. In the end none of this mattered as Labour was thrashed by Boris Johnson's Conservatives at that year's general election and Corbyn quit as leader. But his repeated flip-flopping on the issue was a disaster for Scottish Labour and a gift to both the SNP and Scottish Conservatives, who could portray themselves as the real defenders of the Union – contributing to the Tories' solid showings at the 2016 and 2021 Holyrood polls.
SNP's struggles and the need for Burnham to learn
Nicola Sturgeon loved to dangle the prospect of an IndyRef2 whenever she faced an election. But the illusion was shattered in 2022 when the SNP Government asked the UK Supreme Court to rule on whether Holyrood had the power to call a referendum without prior agreement of Westminster. The answer from judges was a resounding no. The SNP has been all at sea on the matter ever since, trying several wheezes – including so-called "de facto" referendums – none of which have shifted the dial.
John Swinney does not like to mention it now, but before this year's Holyrood poll he spent much time arguing that if the SNP won an outright majority of MSPs – that's Nat MSPs alone, not including Greens – he would have a mandate to begin negotiations to hold a referendum. He fell seven seats short of that benchmark. In desperation, Nationalists have taken to demanding the UK Government solves the puzzle for them. The Conservatives – under a succession of leaders – effectively blew raspberries in response.
Once Labour returned to power in 2024, Keir Starmer chopped and changed his positions on many things – but his position on allowing another referendum was not one of them. He batted away multiple questions at PMQs from SNP MPs asking about the subject, usually with a put-down about the Scottish Government's domestic record thrown in. Unless he wants the constitution to dominate the political conversation in Scotland, Burnham must learn to do the same.
