Andy Burnham, the new Prime Minister, is a man on a mission, launching a blitz of policy announcements this week to capitalise on an extended honeymoon period. Two recent polls already have Labour tied with Reform UK. Should this persist over the summer, or if Labour starts to lead Reform, an early election may prove irresistible for Burnham.
Burnham's window of opportunity
Burnham will never curry so much favour as he does right now. The small boats crisis will continue and the economy will likely stagnate. Bus fare token gestures won't meaningfully help with the cost of living. Council house building plans aside, there is little sign of radical reform.
Soon voters will see how gimmicky 'Manchesterism' really is, given 'power in every postcode' will never extend to a choice on where to house illegal immigrants. Hence why an early election could prove alluring for the new Labour leader. Better to move fast than wait until the window of opportunity slams shut.
Labour's potential gains
Many Labour MPs will lose their seats, but even with a narrow lead, Labour could eke out a win, especially given tactical voting and how votes are distributed nationwide. Burnham would get out from under the mill stone of 'Starmer's mandate' and secure his own. If Labour was reasonably ahead in the polls right now, there would be a summer election. It may not take much to change the new PM's mind.
Reform UK must be prepared
Reform must then be prepared. Nigel Farage's party is strongest on immigration, law and order, and the economy. They need to hammer Labour's record on these as well as the Tory party responsible for much of the current mess. Tory misrule was only two years ago.
This will be something of a 'ming vase' strategy. Not to say Reform shouldn't be bold and radical, but Farage knows the Establishment will do anything to stop him. Any mistake – real or imagined – will be pounced upon. Reform can afford no missteps or public bickering in the ranks. The public wants to hear about those issues where Reform is strongest, especially border control.
Burnham's lucky streak
Burnham has played his hand well and may believe he's on a roll. His lucky streak could continue with a prolonged poll bounce which may convince the PM to go to the people early. Reform must resolutely stay on message and step carefully. The party's moment of truth may be nearer than many thought possible.
