Andy Burnham will call an early election before the IMF has to bail out the Government, according to Esther McVey. Writing in an opinion piece, the former minister said the Prime Minister has no other option, despite his insistence that he will not call one.
McVey argued that the perilous state of the country’s finances, alongside Burnham’s desire to ‘urgently’ fix social care, makes an early election feel inevitable. Burnham has said he will fight the next election on a platform to fix the “social care crisis”, and McVey suggested that if it is so urgent, it cannot wait until the 2029 election.
Chancellor’s growing black holes
McVey pointed to Chancellor John Healey, who she said looks more anxious by the day as new black holes appear and more spending commitments go unfunded. She cited a shortfall of between £25 billion and £28 billion to meet the NATO commitment of 3% of GDP, which she said was the reason Healey resigned from Starmer’s Government, triggering Keir’s downfall.
She also referenced a couple of billion black hole caused by Burnham’s spending spree on becoming Prime Minister, plus the £10 billion government headroom that went missing with the rise in gilt yields. Healey’s latest headache, she wrote, is that the growth Labour promised from 1.5 million new houses being built is not going to happen, leaving a new £1.6 billion black hole.
Snap election plans afoot
McVey said all these points point in one direction: an early cut-and-run election. While Burnham, whose personal ratings are still riding higher than those of his Party, would have liked to announce a snap election at the Labour Party conference this week, he cannot. She noted last week’s YouGov mega poll showed Labour losing 171 seats if they went to the polls now, including Cabinet ministers John Healey, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting.
Burnham has laid the groundwork by talking up a left-wing agenda, including rejoining the EU, no cuts to PIP or welfare, an about turn on Middle East politics, re-committing net zero targets, votes for 16 year olds and PR, and keeping trade union paymasters happy with increased payments to train drivers and employment rights legislation. However, McVey said he has had to back away for the time being from announcing a General Election.
Race against time
McVey said the plans clearly remain afoot. Burnham has recalled party donors like Lord Ali to help with the funding drive for a General Election. Last week, a group of senior Labour Party donors joined Burnham, along with Hayden Munro, the PM's political director, in Downing Street to work out when best to strike.
With the finances getting worse by the day and an extra £18 billion needed per year for his social care plan – with only around £1 billion can be found this year from scrapping the triple lock – McVey concluded it will be a race for Burnham to call an election before the IMF has to come in to bail out the Government.
