Andy Burnham must use this week's Labour party conference as the launchpad for his premiership, or risk sinking, as he seeks to convince anxious MPs he is their true commander in chief and not just a TikToking spin machine.
A year ago at the Labour party conference, the then-Mayor played down his chances of going to Westminster. At a fringe event far outside the secure zone of the official gathering, he insisted "something magical" was happening in Greater Manchester. He said: "You'd have to wrench me out of the place."
A year to the day since he made those comments, he will take to the conference stage to deliver the most important speech of his life as Labour leader and Prime Minister. Walking into the epic hall as a party leader is the nearest most politicians ever get to being a rock star. The music in the arena pumps and the delegates know it is their job to get on their feet so the TV audience will see them cheering like teenagers in the grip of peak Beatlemania. Guitar-playing, gig-going Mr Burnham will love this. But a shiver of nerves will also pulse down his back.
An audition for real power
This is more than a victory oration after seizing the Labour crown. This is an audition for real power. Mr Burnham, like Sir Keir Starmer, has a massive majority in the House of Commons. But will these 402 other Labour MPs do what he wants? Is he their true commander in chief or just an emergency substitution?
Sir Keir discovered the paucity of his supposed power when he attempted to tighten eligibility for benefits and was forced to u-turn. Less than a year after winning a landslide he was humiliated by his own MPs and the countdown started on his exit. MPs terrified by the rise of Reform UK and the Greens replaced him with Mr Burnham, an adept and charismatic campaigner. But the new PM wants to be more than a TikToking spin machine – he wants to do big things that will leave a mark on history.
In his years in Manchester, away from the febrile throng in the Commons, he has had space and time to think about the future of the country. This is his chance to change Britain, but are his party up for taking brave decisions? He lacks the mandate that would have come with a leadership contest, and wounded Starmerites will feel no compulsion to give him covering fire when things get tough.
Uniting a party on the verge of immolation
During his time as Mayor, Mr Burnham railed against the Westminster way of doing things. But now he has to show he can do things in Westminster – and first he must unite his party so they will not mutiny or scatter in imminent storms.
MPs will worry that by talking so much about giving families "breathing space" he is setting himself up for failure if, as strongly expected, inflation and mortgage costs climb even higher. Plus, the freeze in the point at which you begin paying tax means only miserable increases in living standards are likely.
Dare he axe the Reeves freeze? And is he serious about radically expanding public control over privatised industries? He knows that in the hours following his speech all eyes will be on how the markets react; if confidence slips and the cost of borrowing rises, he will be seen as a dangerous idealist with a poor understanding of harsh political and economic realities. He has a burning desire to reform Britain's scandalous social care system but winning the next election will be even harder if this is funded through a massive expansion of what Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage will call "death taxes".
Election speculation and fiscal constraints
On Friday he stamped on speculation about a pre-2029 election, jumping at the chance to "knock that dead". He remembers how his old boss Gordon Brown never recovered from stepping back from an early election in 2007 and he will not want to look similarly "frit". But right now he is curtailed by the tax commitments in Sir Keir's manifesto and by the fiscal rules established by Rachel Reeves. The Institute for Government noted that last year's Budget implied steep spending cuts to "unprotected" departments at the tail-end of this parliament. Mr Burnham did not become PM because he wants to preside over austerity for services such as "prisons, courts, probation, and adult and children's social care" in the run-up to an election.
If the Greens are demolished in the upcoming by-election for Sir Keir's old seat where Zack Polanski is standing – and if the Green leader is forced to resign, and if Labour keeps edging up in the polls, and if Reform gets embroiled in more controversies – then those who believe in Mr Burnham's skills as a campaigner and vision as a leader may tell him now is his best chance to win a majority. There are a lot of "ifs" in that scenario and so much is riding on the days ahead. Liverpool this week is the true launchpad for the Burnham premiership. He must convince a party that had looked on the verge of immolation that he can take it to the stars.
