Andy Burnham could be about to hand Kemi Badenoch the next election, according to analysis by the Daily Express. If the Labour Prime Minister takes the axe to the triple lock, the Conservatives can stand before voters as the defenders of pensioners.
If Labour's changes mean the state pension will no longer rise by at least 2.5% a year, Tory activists will be able to knock on the doors of retirees and tell them how much they stand to lose. Millions of Britons who are decades away from retirement but lack a gold-plated final-salary pension fund fear they will face hardship in old age.
Pensioners and the 'death tax'
If Labour's plans for social care involve a massive expansion of inheritance tax, even if presented as a care levy, Mrs Badenoch can campaign against the "Burnham death tax". Older Britons are radically more likely to vote than younger citizens, so this could make the difference in hundreds of constituencies.
If Labour is preparing for a radically closer relationship with the European Union, the Tories will have another line of attack which will strike a chord with senior voters, presenting themselves as the "Save Brexit" party.
Reform UK and the Red Wall
The hitch for Mrs Badenoch is that Reform UK can also do all these things. But the Conservatives will aim to frame the election as a national emergency in which the country should unite to save pensioners from destitution.
They will argue that everyone who wants to end pensioner poverty, ensure grieving families are not whacked with a tax raid and preserve British sovereignty should get behind the party which was in power when the triple lock was introduced and Brexit became a reality. These issues will be particularly potent in the Red Wall – the traditional Labour heartlands, home to many Leave voters, where Boris triumphed in 2019.
Conference pledge and path to power
Mr Burnham has already ignited fury among trade unionists by not ruling out the axing of the triple lock. Tories who have a passion for tax cuts will urge Mrs Badenoch to use her conference speech next week to make a big pledge on axing inheritance tax.
If she gives families in cash-strapped Britain a reason to believe they will be better off under the Tories, a crucial number of voters may look to them to halt Burnham's plans. The Tories do not need voters to love them to get back in power. Mrs Badenoch stands her best chance of becoming Prime Minister if Britons believe she can stop Labour from making them worse off.
