Sir Tony Blair's call for Britain to join a more powerful European Union is a gift for Reform UK, according to analysis by the Daily Express. The intervention comes as Prime Minister Andy Burnham works to ensure the Red Wall seats Labour won back from the Conservatives in 2024 remain Labour.
Blair's EU Proposal
Sir Tony's think tank has stated that re-entering the EU "should be a cornerstone of the UK government's upcoming 10-year plan." The former Prime Minister, a triple election-winner, has ensured that rejoining the EU will be a central topic at next week's Labour conference.
The analysis suggests Nigel Farage would be thrilled if Labour made reversing Brexit the centrepiece of its agenda, particularly while millions of Britons are concerned about inflation and rising mortgage costs. Reform could then claim the political establishment is determined to overturn the 2016 referendum result.
Impact on Burnham and Labour
In Mr Burnham's own seat of Makerfield, an estimated 65% voted to leave the EU a decade ago. The Prime Minister has not hidden his long-term hope that Britain will rejoin the union, but he would not want a Brexit revolt among Leave voters in traditional industrial heartlands.
Mr Burnham may also be frustrated that Sir Tony is making headlines as he tries to prevent the Greens from winning Sir Keir's old seat of Holborn and St Pancras in an imminent by-election. For many voters, Sir Tony is most remembered for sending British troops to join the US-led invasion of Iraq.
Polling and Reform's Prospects
The intervention comes as polling suggests Reform might finish third in a general election. A YouGov seat-by-seat poll reported by The Times indicates a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party on 241 seats, the Conservatives second on 130, and Reform third with 123 MPs. This contrasts with YouGov's analysis from the previous September, which forecast Reform winning 311 seats, Labour 144, and the Tories 45.
If Reform is experiencing a reversal of fortunes, Sir Tony's intervention may prove more useful to Mr Farage than a large cash donation. Should Mr Burnham take the former PM's advice, Reform would have a renewed purpose and prepare for a "Save Brexit" election with relish.
Mr Burnham, like every Labour leader since Sir Tony stepped down as PM, must contend with the New Labour architect's influence. The current Prime Minister may share Sir Tony's belief that the future will be defined by great power politics amid US-China rivalry, but he also knows disaster awaits if Labour spends its coming years focused on the EU.
