At the Conservative party conference in Birmingham, a growing swell of opposition to leader Kemi Badenoch has emerged, alongside a vision of the party's future that challenges her rightward trajectory. The party currently polls four percentage points below its last election result, its worst showing since the Duke of Wellington was dismissed in 1830 for rejecting electoral reform.
A Strategy That Alienates Moderates
Badenoch's approach appears designed to court Reform voters, yet psephologists suggest these voters are not returning. The more she leans right, the more she repels home counties moderates. Without reclaiming the old "blue wall," there is no hope of a Tory majority, according to professors Tim Bale and Rob Ford.
In an interview with ConservativeHome, Badenoch said, "I march to the beat of my own drum." Critics note she is out of step with the public. Removing the Lords whip from Gavin Barwell, Theresa May's chief of staff, sent a deterrent message to anyone participating in the "festival of ideas" here. Barwell tweeted, "I haven't left the Conservative party. It has left me."
Policy Choices Under Scrutiny
Badenoch's pledge to give free childcare to parents earning over £100,000 has been criticized, as only 4% of people earn that much. The Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests the £700m cost should go to deprived two-year-olds. The New Economics Foundation notes that children of the best-off are eight times more likely to benefit from funded childcare hours than the most disadvantaged.
Her responses to Andy Burnham are also out of touch, as 70% want closer relations with the EU. Her party pledges to rip up any agreement Burnham makes, risking trade pacts. Additionally, Badenoch has proclaimed £47bn in cuts, with her shadow chancellor planning even more.
Competing with Farage
Badenoch competes punch for punch with Nigel Farage. Last week, she stripped down the aid budget to £1bn to equal Farage's policy. The Tories pledged to cut 132,000 civil service jobs, while Farage proposed 68,500, and Danny Kruger upped the ante to 250,000. The Tories just pledged to kill off the Environment Agency, Natural England, and the Climate Change Committee.
The contest for lowest taxes, smallest state, toughest stance on migrants, and harshest welfare cuts is spiraling downwards. The median age of Badenoch's voters is 63, while Labour's is 46.
Prosper UK Offers an Alternative
If nothing improves by next conference, Badenoch's support may melt away. Waiting in the wings is Prosper UK, launched in January, which held seven events at this conference. Co-chaired by Andy Street and Ruth Davidson, the group is pro-EU, pro-migration for skilled workers, pro-net zero, and against the pension triple lock. David Gauke, vice chair, says, "Conservatives should be truth tellers on all these."
The group claims a third of Tory MPs secretly back them, along with 30,000 declared supporters. Gauke adds, "No one speaks for some 7 million people centre or centre-right." The country needs a plausibly electable Tory party to put up a fight against Faragism, not a carbon copy of it. If Badenoch is not for turning, to survive they will need to turn her out.
