Kemi Badenoch has “broken through” with voters who admire her tough-talking style, yet the Conservative Party itself remains widely disliked. This leaves her facing a significant dilemma as she prepares to deliver her major conference speech in Birmingham: how can she translate her personal popularity into support for a party still viewed as toxic by voters who remember the splits and disasters preceding the 2024 general election?
A High-Stakes Strategy
Her answer involves a substantial gamble that could either destroy the Conservative Party or give it a fighting chance at winning a general election. She plans to pause her relentless conflict with fellow right-winger Nigel Farage and focus at least some attention on winning over centrist, moderate, and “liberal” voters instead.
Polling reveals the scale of the challenge. According to a survey by More in Common, which also conducted focus groups, Kemi is one of the most popular party leaders. However, of those who believe she is doing a good job, only a third (34 per cent) say they would vote Conservative.
Voters' Perceptions and Progress
The research found voters describe Kemi as “intelligent”, “professional”, and “principled”. The difficulty is that many of her fans wish she were leading a different party. Yet there is a glimmer of hope: her attempt to portray the party as “under new leadership” is starting to work.
The proportion saying the Conservatives feel “genuinely different” from when Rishi Sunak was leader has risen from 25 per cent last year to 38 per cent now. The Tories are also making progress against Reform. Since May, the share who think the Conservatives are the main party of the right has increased from 17 per cent to 25 per cent.
Appealing to the Centre Ground
Kemi now faces a difficult choice. The fight against Reform is a battle for survival; if Reform becomes the dominant party on the right, the Tories would be finished. Yet she also needs centre-ground voters to have any chance of winning power. Many former Tory voters switched to the Lib Dems in 2024, stayed home, or even voted Labour.
Right-wing Conservative MPs are reluctant to admit this, but the reality is that Kemi needs moderate, centrist voters to reach Number 10. She has chosen to take that gamble. Rather than only fighting Reform, the Conservative Party is now turning its attention to moderates, with headquarters reportedly working on a plan to win over middle-class Labour and Lib Dem voters.
The party still aims to win over Reform voters, but it has set its sights higher than merely beating Farage. Kemi is thinking beyond saving her party from annihilation; she has spotted an opportunity to pull off what seemed impossible in 2024 and take the party straight back into government.
