Badenoch government would boost SNP, not Union, says Chris McCall
Badenoch win would boost SNP, not Union, says McCall

Kemi Badenoch claims the Tories are the only party who would "fight properly for our Union". If that is really the case, it seems strange the Conservatives managed to elect just 12 MSPs at the Holyrood election in May. Whatever it is the Tories are selling these days, it is clear voters are not buying it.

The reality is most Scots know an IndyRef2 remains a hypothetical argument. It is not something that is going to happen any time soon, no matter how many times John Swinney pretends otherwise.

North Sea photo opportunities

Badenoch is at least trying to show she cares about the UK north of the Watford gap. She is no stranger to a photo opportunity in the north east of Scotland, where she can wax lyrical about protecting the North Sea oil industry.

This strategy paid off at the Aberdeen South by-election in June where the Tories romped home at a canter. The scale of the Nationalists' defeat caught many by surprise.

But it is not going to win them any national elections, whether at Westminster or Holyrood. The elephant in the room is called Nigel, wears double-breasted suits and enjoys pints of warm ale.

Crowded right-wing market

The centre-right used to be a lonely place in Scottish politics. For years, the Tories would lament they were the only party in Holyrood that was unashamedly pro-business, pro-Union and firmly against wasteful public spending.

Not anymore. Nigel Farage's Reform is now the dominant party of the right, in both Scotland and England.

Badenoch has repeatedly said she has no interest in an electoral alliance with Farage. Her hatred of Reform appears genuine. This stance creates serious challenges for her. Languishing in third place in the polls, with Labour on the up since the arrival of Andy Burnham in Downing Street, Badenoch has to win attention somehow.

But much of what she is offering - slashing spending on welfare, tougher laws on immigration, cutting taxes for the wealthy - is exactly what Farage is already flogging. And if that all seems too straightlaced for you, there is always Rupert Lowe's ghastly Restore Britain outfit to try. The British right is a crowded market place.

Dragged to the right

If there is a middle ground out there, Badenoch appears to have little interest in it. She has been dragged to the right by Reform, and seems comfortable fighting the tiresome culture wars that flare up on social media.

It is a long way away from the One Nation populism of Boris Johnson who won a landslide in 2019, or the stodgy centre ground embraced by David Cameron in 2015.

But let's pretend Badenoch's own brand of Conservatism does - somehow - win the next general election. It would only boost the SNP and its demands for an IndyRef2 - the opposite of strengthening the Union.

The scale of anti-Tory feeling north of the Border has always been exaggerated. Yet it is undeniable the Conservative brand remains sullied by 14 dismal years in government and the avoidable catastrophe that was Brexit. And while Kemi tries to outpace Farage on the right, the centre ground is clear for Burnham to occupy. There is a reason he is climbing in the polls.