Western officials believe Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO forces, despite increased sabre rattling. The Kremlin's propaganda campaign is designed to keep allies at home happy, mask devastating losses in the war with Ukraine and weaken support by Kyiv, sources believe.
Russia's escalating strikes
Floundering Russian generals have been desperate to report victories back to Moscow, leading them to increase drone strikes on civilian targets in war-torn Ukraine. One strike injured at least four people in a shopping centre in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian State Emergency Service (SES).
A source said: "There's nothing particularly new in the rhetoric. Russia isn't seeking direct confrontation with NATO. We do need to remain vigilant.
"This increase in rhetoric, that is something that is consistent with their doctrine and is consistent with things they've been saying for some time.
"It is worth reflecting that the war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated."
Ukrainian counter-offensive
Ukrainian forces are utilising long-range missiles to strike Russian oil refineries and petroleum plants, creating a fuel crisis and bringing the war to Middle Class Russia's door. Ukraine has increased its strike capability through the use of a range of drones and other technology provided by NATO partners.
That power has caused "problems" for Putin and his cronies, and even "internal political pressure" inside Russia itself.
Another Western official added: "Putin is being frustrated by the failure of Russian forces to achieve the goal he set at the beginning of this year, to seize the rest of the Donbas."
Risk of miscalculation
Western officials said that Ukraine and its allies had seen "Russian progress in the war being extremely slow" with "casualties extremely high". They revealed that entrenched Moscow forces had "lost momentum" on the battlefield, with Moscow not only failing to take new ground but also facing challenges at home.
Officials say that their assessment is that "President Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO" in light of the challenges. But they warn there is a "risk of miscalculation" as an increasingly desperate Moscow tries to wrestle any advantage they can in the war they started.
Britain has been urged to "remain vigilant" as an angry Russian state lashes out, with Western officials warning of Putin's past record of backing attacks on British soil. In the past, the Russian president has ordered the deaths of his rivals, with his secret services killing them despite being far from Moscow. CIA director John Ratcliffe flew to talks with Russian spies, prompting fears they had obtained new pieces of intelligence.
