The Billinge and Seneley Green by-election in St Helens has delivered a seismic result that could carry national significance. Labour's Steve Owen defeated Reform UK's Karen Hatch, securing 1,158 votes to 892. The numbers may seem modest, but the context of May's local elections makes them highly meaningful for the country's changing political picture.
A Stunning Turnaround in a Reform Stronghold
Just a month ago, the outcome of this by-election would have seemed a foregone conclusion. Reform UK had dominated St Helens' local elections in May, seizing control of the council and reducing Labour to just two seats. In the Billinge and Seneley Green ward, Reform had comfortably taken all three seats, making Labour's victory a remarkable turnaround.
Political editor Liam Thorp, who spent time canvassing in St Helens before the May polls, found widespread discontent with Labour's then Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Many residents expressed contempt for Starmer, and Reform appeared to be the natural replacement for Labour in this post-industrial town. However, one name repeatedly came up as a potential game-changer: Andy Burnham.
Burnham's Rise and Reform's Missteps
Numerous voters, including former Labour supporters, praised Burnham as someone who 'gets things done' and had done a good job in Manchester. After Starmer's disastrous local election results, Burnham returned to Parliament via a thumping by-election win in Makerfield, eventually securing the MP votes needed to become Prime Minister. His immediate policy blitz and effective communications campaign improved national polls, giving St Helens Labour a glimmer of hope.
Meanwhile, Reform's new leadership in the town alienated voters with divisive policy announcements, including withdrawing funding for Refugee Week and LGBT Pride celebrations. The exposure of offensive and bizarre social media comments from Reform's by-election candidate Karen Hatch, ranging from anti-Muslim rhetoric to conspiracy theories featuring Bill Gates, further boosted Labour's chances.
A Portent for the Battle Ahead
The result will not have gone unnoticed by the current occupant of Number 10. Burnham's own constituency and the area where he grew up lie close to Billinge, and he had offered support to the local Labour group. He will be hoping this victory is a hopeful portent of an improving direction of travel that could see him fend off the threat of Nigel Farage in the battle for the soul of the country.
