The US military fired on an Iranian-flagged oil tanker on Wednesday, shortly after Donald Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Tehran, telling it to accept a deal to end the war or face a new wave of US bombing at a much higher level and intensity than before.
Attack on Tanker
A US fighter fired several rounds and disabled the tanker's rudder as it attempted to breach the US blockade of Iranian ports, US Central Command said in a social media post.
Trump's Ultimatum
The attack came after the US president's social media announcement, the latest in a rapid series of dramatic and often contradictory changes in policy amid unconfirmed reports of progress in stalled negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, Trump posted on Truth Social, referring to the military operation launched with Israel against Iran in February. If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than before.
Iran's Response
Iran's most senior negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, remained defiant on Wednesday, saying Washington was seeking Tehran's surrender through various means including a naval blockade. The enemy, in its new design, is seeking, through a naval blockade, economic pressure and media manipulation, to destroy the country's cohesion in order to force us to surrender, Ghalibaf said in a voice message.
Negotiations and Blockade
Earlier on Wednesday, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. The US expected Iran to respond to several key points in the next 48 hours. Officials in Pakistan told the Guardian that an initial framework could possibly be agreed within 48 hours but nothing was certain and talks remained difficult.
Late on Tuesday, Trump abruptly ordered an indefinite pause to a naval effort to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. More than 800 ships and roughly 20,000 crew members remain stranded west of the narrow waterway. Trump wrote that the decision to halt Project Freedom came after requests from mediator Pakistan and other countries.
China's Role
Trump, who is due to visit Beijing next week, has often threatened to restart the joint US-Israeli air offensive against Iran but has also indicated his desire for a negotiated end. Analysts suggested the US president may be seeking something that could be portrayed as a breakthrough before arriving in Beijing. China called for a comprehensive ceasefire in the Iran war.
A senior Pakistani political source described things moving forward with a focus on obtaining a permanent ceasefire and opening of the Strait of Hormuz by both sides for at least 60 days. Another Pakistani official said there was still a lack of trust between Iran and the US, and talks remain 50/50.
Oil Prices and Domestic Pressure
The news of a possible deal sent oil prices tumbling, after they had jumped as much as 6% earlier in the week. Many observers believe wide gaps remain between Iran and the US, making a durable ceasefire unlikely in the short term.
Trump said in an interview with PBS he was optimistic about reaching an agreement before his trip to China. I think it's got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn't end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them, Trump said. He insisted that under any deal Tehran would export its highly enriched uranium to the US, a demand experts say Iran cannot accept.
Oil prices fell and stock markets rallied worldwide on Wednesday amid hopes that a deal is nearing to allow tankers to deliver crude from the Gulf again. The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell towards $101.
