Universities, construction firms and health trusts are feeling the squeeze as the UK government's crackdown on immigration drives net migration towards zero for the first time in over three decades. Tough restrictions on foreign students and skilled workers have caused a sharp drop in visa applications, with the latest official figures showing a continued slump.
Analysts warn that if net migration falls below zero this year, the economic impact could be similar to Brexit. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that zero net migration would reduce the UK's annual national income by 3.7% by 2040, while the Office for Budget Responsibility puts the cost of Brexit at 4%.
Greenwich and Kent universities announced a merger this month to save money, citing the loss of lucrative tuition fees from foreign students. Construction companies, care homes and NHS trusts also report recruitment difficulties after new rules curtailed reliance on skilled migrant workers.
Data from Warwick University analyst James Bowes shows non-EU migrant entries on visas could drop below 550,000 this year, down from over 1.1 million in 2023, while departures of non-EU nationals may hit 430,000. This could bring net migration from 860,000 in 2023 to -60,000 in 2026.
Political analysts say the trend could reduce public concern over immigration, potentially weakening support for Reform UK. Professor Rob Ford of Manchester University noted that falling numbers may allow Prime Minister Keir Starmer to shift focus away from the issue.
