Small boat arrivals in the UK have fallen by about 45% compared to the same period last year, a drop that has prompted political debate over the cause. The reduction has led to arguments among politicians about whether government policy or other factors are responsible.
Political Reactions
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp attributed the decline to weather conditions, telling BBC Breakfast: 'The reason the numbers are down is because of the increased wave height in the Channel, it's not because of the action the government has taken.' He cited the skipper of a fishing boat as his source.
Andy Burnham, however, suggested that government measures such as seizing engines and arresting smugglers meant 'progress is being made', though he added his government is 'not complacent'. Nigel Farage argued that even low numbers pose a risk, saying 'it only takes one or two Iranian terrorists to come into Britain and commit a mass atrocity for this to be a disaster'.
Expert Analysis
Dr Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at Oxford University's Migration Observatory, said it is impossible to pinpoint a single reason for the drop. 'We're never going to be able to point to an exact reason, simply because essentially we have one set of numbers and we have a very large set of factors that all operate at the same time,' he explained.
Each of the 14,531 people who have arrived on small boats this year has individual reasons for leaving, getting a place on a boat, and completing the journey. Government policy, such as cooperation with European police to disrupt smuggling gangs, could play a role. Changes in countries like Syria might also reduce the number of people setting out, and EU agreements with neighbours have driven down migrant numbers entering Europe.
Clues and Certainties
One hint may come from vessel sizes. In 2018 and 2019, boats averaged 20 to 30 people, but now boats with 80 or 90 people are common, and a dinghy capsized on Tuesday with 157 people on board. This could indicate smugglers are 'struggling to secure enough boats and enough equipment', according to Dr Mihnea, though he stressed this is not certain.
The Migration Observatory has flagged the weather as 'unlikely to have had a significant impact' on numbers, contradicting Chris Philp's claim.
