Russia's defence ministry has claimed that its Africa Corps, the successor to the Wagner mercenary group, prevented a coup in Mali over the weekend, avoiding mass civilian casualties and inflicting 'irreplaceable losses' on rebel insurgents. The statement said troops in Kidal, near the Algerian border, fought for over 24 hours while surrounded and outnumbered. It also alleged, without evidence, that militants were trained by European mercenary instructors, including Ukrainians. The casualty toll was not specified.
Rebel Advances and Negotiated Exit
Local reports on Monday suggested that, contrary to Russia's claims, Africa Corps troops negotiated their exit with Algeria as mediator. Rebel forces drove the Africa Corps from Kidal, launched an attack near Bamako, and killed defence minister Sadio Camara, a key Moscow ally, in an apparent suicide bombing. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said restoring peace in Mali is a priority.
Limits of Russian Influence
The fall of Kidal, which Russian forces helped recapture in 2023, and its handover to rebels highlight limits of Moscow's military influence in West Africa. French state radio RFI quoted a Malian official anonymously saying Kidal's governor warned Africa Corps of the attack three days prior and their exit was pre-negotiated. 'The Russians betrayed us in Kidal,' the official said.
Mali has faced violence since 2012 after a Tuareg rebellion. The security crisis peaked on Saturday when separatists and al-Qaida-linked jihadists launched coordinated attacks, dealing a major blow to the junta and its Russian backers. About 2,000 Russian troops are deployed under Africa Corps, the Wagner successor. Military bloggers said a Russian helicopter was shot down near Gao. Social media footage showed rebels seizing Russian hardware. Residents near Bamako reported al-Qaida affiliate JNIM terrorists moving freely.
Analysts and Future Tactics
Analyst Ulf Laessing of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung said Russians may change tactics, moving southwards. 'I think the Russians will focus on defending the regime and leave the north to rebels,' he said. Peskov said Moscow had no information on military ruler Assimi Goïta, unseen since unrest began. The Malian presidency posted a photo of him meeting the Russian ambassador on Tuesday, but speculation about his future and junta factions persists. 'Goïta has lost his footing… he no longer has political legitimacy over the junta,' a former Malian diplomat said anonymously.
