Angus Taylor has announced the Coalition's new net overseas migration (Nom) target will be 100,000 in its first two years from 2028-29, rising to 130,000 then 160,000 by 2032. The policy sits between Labor's target and One Nation's, but the most surprising aspect is that in six pages of policy detail there is not a single mention of the labour market, according to former deputy immigration secretary Abul Rizvi.
Unachievable target under current labour market
Rizvi argues there is no chance a Nom figure of 100,000 a year over two years can be delivered if the labour market remains at around its current state — an unemployment rate of 4.6%, a participation rate of 67%, and about 325,000 job vacancies. The Coalition would be overwhelmed by pressure from the business community to increase its target.
In his experience, the Coalition can never stand up to the business community on immigration levels. It was why it stomped on the immigration accelerator after the lifting of Covid lockdowns by introducing unprecedented reductions in immigration standards that Taylor now says need to be increased. The Coalition kept urging the Labor government to increase immigration levels in the second half of 2022.
Canada comparison and policy flaws
The Coalition may point to Canada successfully reducing Nom from well over 1 million in 2023-24 to less than 200,000 in 2025-26, but that was driven by a very weak labour market with unemployment about 7% and a falling participation rate. Massive fluctuations in Nom are never good policy, Rizvi says, as business and government agencies need stability and predictability to plan and invest.
Some aspects of the announcement may be necessary, such as reducing the humanitarian program from 20,000 to 10,000. However, the claim that the policy will “virtually eliminate bridging visas” from more than 400,000 currently to 20,000 is arrant nonsense, as a large portion of the backlog is onshore applications for student, parent, partner and asylum visas.
Student and graduate visa changes
The Coalition proposes reducing annual student commencements to 245,000 from the government's national planning level of 295,000 in 2026 and 2027, but under Labor's own policy with high student visa refusal rates, the 295,000 will not be delivered. The permanent migration program is to be held at 185,000 a year, contributing about 75,000 a year to Nom, which the Coalition seems to have not considered.
On its own calculations, the Coalition would not come close to delivering its Nom target of 100,000 in years one and two. Those are political targets, not policy targets, Rizvi concludes.
