Nine Key Lessons for the US from Viktor Orbán's Electoral Defeat in Hungary
As the United States approaches its upcoming elections, the recent electoral loss of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán serves as a powerful reminder that history does not inevitably progress towards autocracy. Orbán's defeat on 12 April was a significant blow to figures like Donald Trump and JD Vance, who had openly endorsed Europe's most prominent autocrat but failed to secure his victory. This event holds vital lessons for Americans aiming to resist Trump's own autocratic tendencies. Here are the key takeaways from Hungary's political shift.
Prioritize Opposition Unity
Orbán was defeated by a broad coalition led by Péter Magyar under the banner of his new Tisza party. The unity of the opposition proved critical. While some Democrats in the US cling to purity tests, refusing to collaborate with those who reject certain progressive principles, Hungarians from diverse political backgrounds united with the shared objective of ousting Orbán. For them, the ideological divide between right and left became secondary to the urgent need to restore Hungary's democracy. Several political parties even opted not to field candidates, sacrificing their immediate interests to prevent splitting the anti-Orbán vote.
Fight from the Center
Péter Magyar, far from being a progressive, hails from the center-right, holding conservative views on immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. He was a long-time member of Orbán's Fidesz party before departing to establish Tisza. In contrast to some American progressives who advocate for a leftward shift to combat Trumpism, Magyar waged a centrist campaign focused on appealing to the movable middle. This strategy resulted in a remarkable 79% voter turnout on election day, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989, engaging voters across the political spectrum.
Economics Matter
Like many autocrats, Orbán relied on social wedge issues as a substitute for a coherent economic program. He frequently targeted immigrants, LGBTQ+ individuals, the European Union, Ukraine, and philanthropist George Soros. However, Magyar consistently emphasized economic themes, highlighting Fidesz's endemic corruption, Hungary's sluggish economy, and the deteriorating state of infrastructure and public services. These bread-and-butter issues resonated more deeply with voters than Orbán's divisive appeals to social enemies, a lesson Democrats should heed.
Divisiveness Can Backfire
Orbán maintained his 16-year rule by dividing society, portraying opponents as agents of Brussels or Kyiv, and pitting immigrants against native Hungarians. Yet, a society polarized into 'us versus them' is ripe for consolidation behind an anti-incumbent message. When the choice becomes binary and the ruling party is increasingly viewed as corrupt and self-serving, the alternative becomes more attractive. Orbán also fell victim to his own success; like Trump, he had dominated government for so long that he had no one left to blame for its failures, rendering his scapegoating ineffective.
Election Rigging Has Its Limits
Orbán was notorious for manipulating Hungary's electoral system through gerrymandering and other tactics to secure a parliamentary supermajority despite narrow ballot-box margins. For instance, voters in rural constituencies, where Orbán was most popular, were given three times the parliamentary weight of urban voters. This supermajority enabled him to amend the constitution and appoint loyalists without opposition support. However, as political tides shifted in favor of the opposition, this engineering proved risky. Magyar campaigned extensively in rural areas, and Tisza's 53% poll showing yielded its own supermajority of 141 out of 199 seats, surpassing the 133 needed for constitutional changes, facilitating the dismantling of Orbán's autocratic rule.
The Autocrat's Playbook Doesn't Guarantee Success
A key element of the autocrat's playbook involves tilting the electoral field by limiting independent voices like journalists, civil society, and universities. Yet, Magyar demonstrated that this advantage can be overcome through an energetic schedule of in-person campaign events and effective social media use. He was supported by years of work from independent journalists and civil-society groups that exposed the Orbán government's self-dealing. Similar efforts should persist in the United States, rejecting fatalism.
Sycophants Give Bad Advice
Orbán's suppression of dissent created an autocratic echo chamber, where he only heard what he allowed. Leaders who rely solely on their instincts often make grave errors. Orbán's corruption, including lavish family estates while ordinary Hungarians struggled, and his use of government funds to reward cronies rather than provide essential services, were highlighted by Magyar. Despite promoting family values, his associates pardoned a children's home official convicted of covering up child sexual abuse, and his close ties with Russia backfired. Trump exhibits similar tendencies, with potentially larger consequences due to his greater power, and Democrats should emphasize Republican complicity.
External Support for Democracy Matters
The European Union played a crucial role in reviving democracy in Hungary, as it did in Poland in 2023. Due to concerns over Hungary's illiberal democracy and rule-of-law violations, the EU withheld approximately €32 billion in funds, deepening economic strains. This conditionality contributed to political shifts, similar to Poland's electoral outcome. While no foreign entity holds comparable economic sway in the US, external support for journalists and activists can still bolster efforts to restore democracy.
Autocracy Is Reversible
The most important lesson is that autocracy is not irreversible. Even Orbán had to concede defeat without mounting a January 6-style effort to cling to power. In an era where despair about democracy is common, examples from Bangladesh to Brazil show that people under autocracy desire change. This message from Europe underscores that the autocrat's project is fundamentally self-serving, aimed at enriching families and cronies rather than serving the public interest. As Republicans approach the midterms, the parallels between Orbán and figures like Trump should serve as a stark warning.
