Americans go to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new House of Representatives, Senators and Governors, with the outcome carrying high stakes for Donald Trump and for the world. This year's midterms are marked by closer races in more states than any election in living memory, with Democrats poised to seize control of both houses of Congress.
Obama signals change is in the air
Former President Barack Obama said at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia on Wednesday: “People are so ready for something new, so hungry for something better, so sick and tired of being sick and tired, that everywhere you go, it feels like change is in the air.”
If Trump's power is diminished, the effects will be felt globally. Congress controls the purse strings of the federal government and could hold up the $1.5 billion boost for the armed forces that Trump is demanding for next year. Trade agreements and tariffs are also subject to congressional scrutiny, and Trump was only able to introduce his tariff plan because a Republican-controlled Congress allowed it.
Congressional oversight and impeachment risk
Congress would also have oversight on issues such as support for Ukraine, America's position on Nato membership and the war in Iran. Beyond curtailing his actions, Trump could face congressional hearings with his lieutenants, and potentially impeachment. Congress could summon his closest allies for questioning, delve into his business arrangements, and revive the Epstein files.
Trump's historically low personal approval rating is a major reason for the Republicans' nationwide collapse, but distaste for the man is only part of the picture. Voters have backed Trump in two elections when they believed he could improve their lives, yet his failure on some issues and the damage he has done on others is what is really at play.
Key issues and campaign struggles
The cost of living, particularly rocketing petrol and diesel prices crucial for America's farming and trucking industries, is doing serious damage to Republicans. The issue of data centres, huge complexes that tech giants want to place next to communities, is also hurting them. Government corruption this month took the top spot as the issue American voters are most angry about, beating inflation and healthcare.
A tired-looking Trump has been giving speeches on the campaign trail, but instead of concentrating on rising prices, he has spent most of his rallies joking about admiring men's bodies and dismissing voters' concerns over fuel prices. There has been no discernible Trump polling bump in any of the competitive Senate races after a local Trump speech. In North Carolina, Democrat Senate candidate Roy Cooper widened his lead over Republican Mike Whatley after Trump visited.
Trump, seen at a White House Halloween event on Thursday with wife Melania, will almost certainly cry foul if Republicans do badly. He gets very upset when early results look like Republicans are winning, then Democrats overtake them, and he thinks it means fraud. It is actually because postal ballots skew Democrat, and those ones are counted last.
