Tories See Flickers of Hope Amidst Election Gloom, But Is Denial Setting In?
"The Conservative party is coming back," declared Kemi Badenoch at her party's local election launch last week, surrounded by cheering supporters. This bold statement has sparked a mix of cautious optimism and deep-seated anxiety within Tory ranks as the May elections approach.
A Ray of Hope in the Polling Darkness
Relative to the bleak mood of recent years, many Conservative MPs are feeling surprisingly upbeat. "I don't want to say we're chipper, as that might sound complacent, but we're quietly chirpy," admitted one Tory MP who is not a staunch Badenoch supporter. "Yes, we're going to do badly, but that's expected. And more importantly, Labour will do worse."
Several factors contribute to this guarded optimism. Reform UK's recent dip in the polls has provided a glimmer of relief, while Badenoch's personal ratings have shown improvement. Her performances against Keir Starmer at Prime Minister's Questions have been praised, and she is seen to have adeptly managed the departures of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Nigel Farage's party.
"Kemi does come up on the doorstep," noted a shadow minister. "Her party conference speech last year engaged members, and her response to Rachel Reeves' budget seemed to tap into the public mood. But there is still frustration that none of this is translating into better party polling."
The Stark Reality of Impending Losses
Despite these positive signs, the broader picture remains grim. The Conservatives face heavy losses on 7 May, not only across English councils but particularly in the Scottish and Welsh parliament elections, where they are expected to be reduced to a handful of seats. This decline is partly circumstantial; the last elections in Scotland and Wales were in May 2021, during Boris Johnson's vaccine bounce, when Tory poll ratings soared above 40%.
Today, Badenoch's approval rating stands at a mere 17%, according to YouGov, a near-extinction level of support that has remained stagnant for months. Yet, the party consensus is that she is completely safe in her leadership role. "What pressure there is on Kemi is kind of under the radar for now," explained one MP. "She most likely has another conference speech and maybe another set of local elections before there could be any kind of challenge."
Denial and Delusion in the Face of Crisis
Some within the party fear that this optimism is a form of mass denial. "If you're knocking on doors as much as I do, the view from MPs can seem delusional," said a senior regional organiser with council elections in their area. "No one has ever told me: 'Kemi was good on PMQs, wasn't she?' It's only MPs and nerds like me who watch it."
This organiser warned that the Conservative brand has not been repaired, and Reform UK is making significant inroads. "We're at risk of reaching that critical mass where a vote for us is seen as a wasted vote. That just wasn't the case even last year. All the party has done is take a tactical decision to go to the right and echo Reform. There is no strategy as to who our voters are."
Adjusting to a New Political Landscape
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, highlighted the party's failure to adapt to the new era of British politics. "Their poll position suggests to me that they are in an awful lot of trouble," he said. "Simply pointing to a Labour government that's doing really badly, and thinking, well, we're not as bad as them – it's not enough. They don't seem to have realised that they are living in a completely different world."
Bale compared the current situation to the aftermath of Labour's 1997 victory, where some Tories believed voters would naturally return. "I do wonder whether the Conservatives feel there still is a sort of natural order of things," he mused.
Glimmers of Optimism and Personal Relief
Despite the overwhelming challenges, there are a few flickers of hope. Some MPs point to potential tactical voting, with former Lib Dem supporters considering voting Conservative to keep Reform out. Additionally, the departure of divisive figures like Jenrick and Braverman has brought a sense of relief. "It's hard to overstate how much people breathed a sigh of relief when Robert and Suella left," one shadow minister revealed. "Robert was particularly toxic, and that spread. Now he's gone, even his friends seem to be trying extra hard to be loyal."
An Existential Crisis Looming
However, these are mere crumbs of comfort in the face of an impending abyss. One party official described the current mood as akin to the stages of grief. "It's denial now, but after May there will be the realisation we are doing something very wrong. And at some point MPs will decide to take a punt on someone else for leader."
This official framed the situation in stark terms: "If you're told you have a terminal illness, and there is an unproven operation with a 20% chance of success, you'd go for it. If we get smashed in May, I would rather roll the dice and try again. This isn't about bad results. It's existential."
As the May elections draw near, the Conservative party stands at a crossroads, balancing fleeting optimism against the harsh reality of potential electoral disaster.
