Nearly eight months after her resignation over a stamp duty underpayment, Angela Rayner could be returning to the cabinet. Speculation is growing that Prime Minister Keir Starmer may conduct a small-scale reshuffle, primarily to bring back his former deputy and one of Labour's most prominent figures. The decision, however, is not yet final and hinges on the outcome of next week's local and devolved elections.
Elections analyst and Conservative peer Robert Hayward has forecast that Labour will lose 1,850 council seats on 7 May, a figure well above the 1,500 that some reports suggest could trigger a cabinet revolt. Reform UK is predicted to gain about 1,550 councillors and the Greens 500. If Starmer faces such losses, the temptation to secure Rayner's support as part of a government reset would be strong, signaling a change of direction to restive MPs.
Since resigning, Rayner has balanced loyalty with occasional interventionism. Her compromise on the workers' rights bill, which she had spearheaded, helped it pass through the Lords and was viewed favourably by Number 10. However, her recent criticism of proposed immigration changes as 'un-British' and her warning that Starmer could not 'go through the motions' amid ebbing support were less welcome. Starmer has said he would welcome her return, and the two reportedly discussed the idea during a school visit this month.
An ongoing HMRC investigation into the stamp duty underpayment has been an obstacle. Allies of Rayner had hoped for resolution before the elections, but the timeline may have slipped. Additionally, it is unclear whether Rayner would want to rejoin what some see as a sinking ship. Those close to her say she would listen seriously to offers but would likely refuse a 'non-job'. She would not demand the deputy prime minister role, currently held by David Lammy.
Some Labour figures note that Rayner connects with voters in a human way that Starmer struggles to emulate, and her pointed interventions often reflect wider MP sentiment. However, others question whether she might be more useful as a backbencher, free to campaign across the country. The possibility of a future leadership challenge looms, with Rayner and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham both seen as potential challengers. Burnham has said the election aftermath must be a 'moment of reflection' for Labour, prompting speculation about his own parliamentary ambitions.
