SNP Projected to Win 62 Seats in Scottish Parliament Election with Reform UK in Second
A new opinion poll has suggested the Scottish National Party could secure 62 seats in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election, placing them just three seats short of a majority. The survey, conducted by Survation for the Diffley Partnership between March 16 and 23, indicates a surprising second-place finish for Reform UK, narrowly ahead of Labour.
Polling Methodology and Detailed Results
The survey interviewed 1,068 people across Scotland, providing a snapshot of voter intentions ahead of the May election. According to the findings, the SNP leads with 35% of the Holyrood constituency vote and 32% of the regional list vote. This would translate to 62 seats in the Scottish Parliament, falling just short of the 65 needed for a majority.
Reform UK emerges as a significant contender, projected to receive 19% of the constituency vote and 18% of the list vote, which would give them 19 seats. Labour follows closely with 19% constituency support and 17% regional support, equating to 18 seats. The Scottish Conservatives are placed on 13 seats, with 11% constituency and 13% list votes. The Scottish Greens would secure 10 seats, while the Liberal Democrats are projected to win seven.
Leadership Popularity and Voter Engagement
First Minister John Swinney continues to be Scotland's most popular political leader, despite a net favourability rating of minus 10%. This compares to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at minus 47% and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar at minus 25%. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has a minus 31% rating in Scotland, while his Scottish leader Lord Malcolm Offord stands at minus 15%, though 55% of respondents expressed no opinion of Lord Offord.
Mark Diffley, founder of the Diffley Partnership, noted that the proportion of voters answering "don't know" about political leaders has decreased since February, indicating heightened engagement as the election approaches. "As the campaign now gets properly under way, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority," he said.
Diffley added that support for other parties is broadly dispersed, meaning small shifts during the campaign could significantly alter the final seat distribution. He observed that favourability ratings have softened for nearly every leader, suggesting voters are assessing candidates more critically as they tune into the campaign.
Political Reactions and Campaign Statements
Speaking to the Press Association in Stirling, First Minister John Swinney described the poll as "interesting" but emphasized that "the one that matters is the one that takes place on May 7." He stated his focus is on running a strong campaign centered on delivering people's priorities, including strengthening the NHS, tackling the cost of living, and offering a fresh start with independence.
A Scottish Conservative spokesman warned that the chance of an SNP majority is "very real" and urged voters to back the Tories to prevent it. "He will use that majority to push for another divisive independence referendum at the expense of every other issue that matters to Scots," the spokesman said, referring to Swinney.
Scottish Liberal Democrat deputy leader Wendy Chamberlain expressed skepticism about the poll's accuracy. "Our data shows that in target constituencies like Inverness & Nairn and Strathkelvin & Bearsden we are neck and neck with the SNP but that wouldn't necessarily show up in this polling," she said. Chamberlain encouraged voters to support the Lib Dems on the regional ballot to deliver change with fairness and hardworking local MSPs.
Analysis of Electoral Dynamics
The poll highlights several key dynamics in the Scottish political landscape:
- The SNP maintains a strong lead but faces challenges in securing a majority.
- Reform UK's rise to second place reflects shifting voter allegiances and potential dissatisfaction with traditional parties.
- Labour's close third-place position indicates a competitive race for opposition status.
- Leadership ratings show widespread negative perceptions, with Swinney relatively less unfavourable than his counterparts.
With several weeks remaining until the election, the poll suggests there is considerable scope for movement in both voting intentions and leader perceptions. As Diffley concluded, "Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office." The final outcome will depend on how parties navigate the remaining campaign period and address voter concerns on issues like the NHS, cost of living, and constitutional questions.
