A new eve-of-election poll suggests the SNP's lead is tightening, with experts warning that the odds are against First Minister John Swinney winning an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7.
Research by More in Common shows SNP support down three points on both constituency and regional ballots since late April, standing at 32% and 23% respectively. On the regional ballot, the SNP is only just ahead of Reform UK, which polls at 22%. Labour has seen the most notable movement, with constituency support up three points to 20% and regional support up four points to 19%.
Elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said all recent research indicates the SNP is 'not quite far enough' ahead to win more than half the seats at Holyrood. He noted that key battles in a 'handful of seats' could deny the SNP an overall majority, with the Tories possibly hanging on to a few constituencies and the Liberal Democrats making gains.
A YouGov MRP poll projects the SNP winning 62 seats, three short of the 65 needed for a majority. Reform UK is predicted to become the second-largest party with 19 seats, ahead of Labour on 17. The Scottish Greens could win 16 seats, their best-ever result, while the Liberal Democrats may double their tally to eight and the Tories could slump from 31 to seven seats.
A separate Survation MRP poll forecasts the SNP on 59 seats, Reform UK on 18, Labour on 17, and the Greens on 16. Ipsos also puts the SNP in the lead but shows support falling slightly. Sir John concluded that if the polls are right, 'the odds are against' the SNP securing a majority.
