SNP Poised for 62 Seats as Reform UK Edges Labour in Scottish Parliament Poll
A fresh opinion poll conducted by Survation for the Diffley Partnership has projected that the Scottish National Party could win 62 seats in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election this May. The survey, which involved 1,068 respondents between March 16 and 23, places the SNP just three seats short of an overall majority in Holyrood.
According to the poll results, the SNP leads with 35% of the constituency vote and 32% on the regional list. This strong showing positions the party as the dominant force, though it falls narrowly shy of the 65 seats required for a majority in the 129-seat parliament.
Reform UK Surges into Second Place Ahead of Labour
In a significant development, Reform UK is projected to secure second place, narrowly ahead of Scottish Labour. The poll indicates Reform UK would receive 19% of the constituency vote and 18% on the regional list, translating to an estimated 19 seats.
Labour follows closely behind with 19% support in constituencies and 17% on the regional list, which would yield 18 seats. This places the party just one seat behind Reform UK, highlighting the competitive nature of the race for second position.
Other Parties' Projected Performance
The survey projects the Scottish Conservatives would win 13 seats based on 11% constituency and 13% regional list support. The Scottish Greens are forecast to secure 10 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would obtain seven seats.
These numbers suggest a fragmented political landscape where smaller parties could play crucial roles in determining the final parliamentary arithmetic.
Leadership Popularity and Voter Engagement
First Minister John Swinney remains the most popular political leader in Scotland, despite having a net favourability rating of minus 10%. This compares to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's minus 47% and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's minus 25%.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage registers a minus 31% rating in Scotland, while his Scottish leader Lord Malcolm Offord scores minus 15%, though 55% of respondents expressed no opinion about Lord Offord.
Mark Diffley, founder of the Diffley Partnership, noted that the proportion of voters answering "don't know" about political leaders has decreased since February, indicating heightened engagement as the election approaches.
"As the campaign now gets properly under way, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority," Diffley commented.
"Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture."
Campaign Responses and Strategic Positioning
First Minister John Swinney, speaking to the Press Association in Stirling, described the poll as "interesting" but emphasized that "the one that matters is the one that takes place on May 7." He reiterated his focus on delivering a strong campaign centered on NHS strengthening, cost-of-living measures, and independence.
A Scottish Conservative spokesman warned that the chance of an SNP majority remains "very real" and urged voters to support his party to prevent it. "He will use that majority to push for another divisive independence referendum at the expense of every other issue that matters to Scots," the spokesman stated.
Scottish Liberal Democrat deputy leader Wendy Chamberlain expressed skepticism about the poll's accuracy, noting that internal data shows her party competitive with the SNP in target constituencies like Inverness & Nairn and Strathkelvin & Bearsden.
"Meanwhile, wherever you are, every vote for the Scottish Liberal Democrats on the second peach regional ballot will deliver change with fairness at its heart and a hardworking local MSP," Chamberlain asserted.
Election Dynamics and Voter Scrutiny
Diffley further observed that as voters pay closer attention to the campaign, they are assessing leaders more critically, with favourability ratings softening for almost every leader. This suggests a more demanding electorate as the election draws nearer.
"Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office," Diffley explained. "With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further."
The poll underscores the volatile nature of Scottish politics ahead of the May election, with the SNP positioned as frontrunners but facing challenges from both Reform UK and Labour in a tightly contested race for parliamentary influence.
