SNP and Greens Projected to Fall Short of Independence Majority in Holyrood Election
A comprehensive new poll forecasts that the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Scottish Greens are on track to lose their pro-independence majority in next month's Holyrood election. The survey, conducted by More in Common and involving more than 5,000 Scottish voters, reveals that pro-Union parties are poised to secure more Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) than their pro-independence counterparts.
Poll Details and Methodology
The poll employs a sophisticated multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) system, which analyses voter intentions, demographics, historical voting patterns, and constituency-specific data to generate detailed projections for each electoral area. According to the findings, the SNP is projected to decline from 64 seats to 56, while Reform UK is set to become the second-largest party with 22 seats. Labour follows with 17 seats, the Liberal Democrats with 14, the Conservatives with 12, and the Greens with eight.
Key Findings and Political Implications
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, commented on the results, stating, 'Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world. Although they look set to maintain power, it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.' He added, 'The SNP benefit, however, from a further fragmentation of the Unionist vote, with Reform UK emerging as the strongest Unionist party and official opposition. That said, the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty six-party politics creates.'
The poll also highlights that more than half of the 73 constituencies are considered 'marginal', meaning there is less than five percentage points between the two leading parties, indicating that the election outcome remains highly unpredictable and competitive.
Party Reactions and Campaign Developments
During a recent Channel 4 debate, Reform UK's Scottish leader Malcolm Offord alleged that Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar had privately offered to collaborate to 'remove the SNP'. Sarwar dismissed this claim as false, following his own accusation that a Reform candidate 'wants to deport my children'. When questioned by the BBC about potentially supporting Sarwar for First Minister, Lord Offord responded, 'He doesn't share our ambition to make Scotland the most successful part of the UK, so I don't understand how we could work together.'
Labour's Paul O'Kane emphasised, 'Anas Sarwar has been very clear in this election he is a candidate for First Minister, we are not making deals before a single vote has been cast.' Meanwhile, SNP leader John Swinney expressed confidence on the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, predicting, 'I think we will get a majority.' He further asserted in an interview with the Press Association that the SNP could win an independence referendum in 2028, a statement labelled 'very arrogant' by Lib Dem MSP Jamie Green.
Constituency Projections and Electoral Dynamics
The poll suggests that Reform UK is on course to secure at least two MSPs on the regional list in every area, with potential gains of up to four in West Scotland, and could win constituencies such as Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast. The Scottish Greens, projected to hold eight seats, might achieve their first constituency victories in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, as well as Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.
A Scottish Conservative spokesman warned, 'This poll makes it clear that a vote for Reform will only help the SNP remain in power for another five years. As postal votes continue to land across Scotland, voters must back the Scottish Conservatives on their peach ballot paper.' This underscores the strategic voting considerations and intense partisan rivalries shaping the final weeks of the campaign.
