Slovenia's Election: A Pivotal Choice Between Liberalism and Illiberal Drift
On 21 February 2026, Janez Janša, the longtime leader of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), presented his party's election candidates in Ljubljana. This event marks the intensification of a campaign season that will culminate in parliamentary elections on 22 March. Slovenia, often hailed as a small, stable European success story, now faces a critical juncture that could see it turn away from liberal democratic norms.
The Current Government's Record and Challenges
The outgoing coalition, led by centre-left Prime Minister Robert Golob of the Freedom Movement (GS), has managed to serve a full term—a rare feat in Slovenia's fragmented political landscape. Formed ahead of the 2022 election, the GS won 41 of 90 seats in its debut, the strongest single-party result since independence. Golob allied with the Social Democrats (SD) and the left party (Levica) to secure 53 seats, providing unusual stability.
Despite its meteoric rise, Golob's government has faced challenges due to limited experience, leading to visible improvisation at times. However, it has achieved tangible successes: responding swiftly to the 2023 floods with advance financial aid, mitigating the energy crisis by shielding households and businesses from price surges, increasing the minimum wage, strengthening labour protections for cultural workers, and introducing a long-delayed long-term care system. Many progressive measures originated from Levica, targeting socially vulnerable groups beyond its electoral base.
While imperfect, the government has maintained democratic institutions, a pluralistic media landscape despite polarization, and civil society freedom from systematic intimidation. Yet, public support has eroded, with the SDS consistently leading in opinion polls by a few points, buoyed by a loyal electorate compared to fluctuating centre-left voters.
The Rise of the Slovenian Democratic Party
Unlike many European far-right insurgent parties, the SDS is a central pillar of the Slovenian right, with extensive government experience under Janez Janša, who has served as prime minister three times since 2000. Initially governing as a conventional conservative party, later mandates became more polarizing. Janša's 2012–13 government collapsed amid corruption protests, and he faced a prison sentence later overturned. His most recent term from 2020 to 2022, during the Covid pandemic, marked an illiberal turn: suspending funding to the Slovenian Press Agency, attacking public broadcaster RTV Slovenija, reshaping state institution boards, and confronting journalists on social media.
Courts and civil society pushed back, with large protests in Ljubljana, but Janša's actions triggered European Parliament warnings. In opposition, the SDS has relied on familiar rhetoric: denouncing "biased" press, warning of migrant influxes, criticizing overregulation, and waging culture wars over education. This repetition has proven effective, especially in a transformed European political environment.
The Global Context and Illiberal Threats
The global landscape has shifted since Janša's last term, with Trump's presidency normalizing media hostility and judicial attacks, providing a template for polarization and institutional pressure. Janša, an admirer of Trump's style, fits this model, recently expressing a preference for governing with an outright majority to avoid coalition compromises. This signals a desire for decisive action, resonating with voters who cite impatience with bargaining and a perception of liberal weakness, potentially leading to tolerance for concentrated power.
A new SDS-led government would likely pursue tougher border controls on migration, deregulation for a "business-friendly" climate, and "reform" language that could tighten executive influence over media and judiciary. Illiberalism often advances incrementally within legal frameworks, reshaping institutions from within without outright violating democratic procedures.
A Structural Choice for Slovenia's Future
Slovenia's institutions remain embedded in the EU legal order, with active civil society, offering resilience against democratic backsliding. However, the current election represents more than routine democratic maintenance—it is a structural choice between flawed pluralism and a governance model that risks eroding democratic norms. The methods and alliances of illiberal politics are now more consolidated globally, providing precedent and validation. As Slovenia votes, the outcome will test its commitment to liberalism in an increasingly polarized world.
