On 22 March, Slovenia will hold parliamentary elections, with the centre-left government of Prime Minister Robert Golob seeking a second term against a resurgent hard-right opposition. The outgoing coalition, led by Golob's Freedom Movement (GS), has served a full term—a rare achievement in Slovenia's fragmented political landscape. Golob's party won 41 of 90 seats in 2022, forming a coalition with the Social Democrats and the Left party, securing 53 seats.
The government's achievements include swift financial aid after the 2023 floods, measures to mitigate the energy crisis, a minimum wage increase, stronger labour protections for cultural workers, and the introduction of a long-term care system. However, public support for the Freedom Movement has declined, with the hard-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) leading in opinion polls by a few points.
The SDS, led by three-time prime minister Janez Janša, is not an insurgent party but a central pillar of the Slovenian right. Janša's most recent term (2020–2022) saw an illiberal turn, including funding cuts to the Slovenian Press Agency, attacks on the public broadcaster, and attempts to reshape state institutions. Courts and civil society pushed back, but the European Parliament issued warnings.
The election presents a stark choice between the liberal, albeit imperfect, governance of Golob and the illiberal drift represented by Janša, who has drawn on the playbooks of Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump. The outcome will have implications for the rule of law and democratic institutions in this small, stable European Union member state.
