More than 2 million people will be eligible to vote on 30 July in the largest ever by-election in Britain, the race to be Greater Manchester mayor. The contest will offer clues on the national mood and test the credentials of Andy Burnham, the likely next prime minister, as his former role is up for grabs.
Reform UK was the biggest winner in the region at the local elections seven weeks ago, gaining 106 councillors and wiping out Labour strongholds. However, Nigel Farage has suffered two humiliating defeats in parliamentary by-elections in the area, and faces scrutiny over donations and wealth. The Green party, meanwhile, is aiming to convert recent Manchester success into its first major mayoral seat.
Labour is the clear favourite according to bookmakers, but party insiders expect a drop of at least 10 percentage points from Andy Burnham’s 63.4% vote share in 2024. The supplementary voting system means if no candidate reaches 50%, second preferences will decide the winner. Labour is seen as benefiting from being a common second choice among Green, Liberal Democrat and some Conservative voters, while Reform UK is viewed as too polarising.
Labour candidate Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council, described the loss of 108 councillors seven weeks ago as “sobering”. The Greens won 17 seats in Manchester urban wards partly due to anger over Keir Starmer’s position on Gaza, while Reform UK won 106 seats, including all but one in Wigan and 18 of 19 in Tameside.
Luke Tryl of the More in Common thinktank said the by-election is “hugely significant”. He stated: “Andy Burnham’s premiership would get off to quite a bad start if Labour lost. It’s England’s second city and so who runs it has huge significance because it elevates them on to the national stage.”
