Labour secured victories in council by-elections in Wigan and Oldham on November 12, but a closer look at the vote suggests the results were driven more by a slump in Reform UK support than a 'Burnham bounce'.
In Hindley Green, Wigan, Labour's John Vickers won the seat with 1,201 votes, ahead of Reform's Bonnie Clarke with 887. The by-election was triggered by the death of long-serving independent councillor Bob Brierley.
Reform Vote Collapses in Wigan
Vickers had also been Labour's candidate in May, when he received a very similar 1,172 votes but was roundly beaten by a Reform candidate who took 1,878. On Thursday, while Labour's vote stayed roughly level, Reform UK was around 1,000 votes down.
Vickers attributed the win to Andy Burnham's rise to Prime Minister. He said: “People were disillusioned in May and what happened on June 18 [Andy Burnham becoming an MP] certainly put a lot of faith back in people who had perhaps decided that the Labour Party was not going in the right direction.”
Nazia Rehman, leader of Wigan council, added: “I think that politics has completely changed in the past six months. This is a huge endorsement for Andy Burnham, his leadership and the message of hope we are coming back with.”
Wigan Reform leader Paul Watson acknowledged the 'Burnham bounce' but suggested it might not last. He said: “Momentum maybe seems to be with Labour now, after the Burnham bounce, but come May it will be a totally different perspective.”
Oldham Result Decided by 42 Votes
In Failsworth West, Oldham, Reform's Chris Baddeley won the council by-election by just 42 votes, taking 642 votes to Labour's 600. The ward sits on the border with Manchester and falls into the Manchester Central constituency under Lucy Powell MP.
Turnout stood at 19.7 per cent, with the freezing cold weather suggested as a possible factor. Baddeley said he 'wouldn't have got here without the councillors that have been helping me and the other helpers that have been helping doing the canvassing and the leafleting,' adding: “This is where the hard work starts.”
Again, the vote in May tells the story. Six months ago, Reform UK picked up 1,878 votes in Failsworth West when Mark Ruthven was elected with 56 per cent of the ballots cast, to Labour's 584.
Labour Points to Burnham Factor
Oldham Labour put the result down to the Andy Burnham factor as well as the record of its candidate, Pete Davis. Oldham Labour leader Arooj Shah said there was 'a complete change of atmosphere' on the doorstep. She said: “We leafletted and people really spoke and it's obvious they've got their hope and faith back in Labour. I think that has got a lot to do with Andy Burnham but also [candidate] Pete [Davis] and his record in the area has really paid off.”
Labour sources in Greater Manchester were generally pleased with the results. The Burnage by-election in Manchester in September, for Bev Craig's former council seat, was also seen as a major test, but there the Greens were the main opponent. Labour won by 328 votes in a result also put down to the 'Burnham bounce'.
However, by-elections elsewhere in the country last night saw Reform beat Labour to win seats in North East Lincolnshire and the Staffordshire Moorlands, raising the question of whether the 'Burnham bounce' is confined to Greater Manchester.
Another big test comes in the Harpurhey by-election in Manchester on November 26, one of the city's most deprived areas. One Labour source said the party is 'on the road to recovery' from where it was in May. Asked whether they're in a good place for the 2027 local elections, they said: “We'll know the answer to that in two weeks' time.”
Coun Sian Astley, leader of Reform UK in Manchester, said of her party's prospects: “I think it does put us in a good place for May. I think people in Wigan still hold a little bit of faith in Mr Burnham which we in Reform feel is misplaced. We've got a lot of new Reform councillors just elected in May and we've got to prove ourselves and we've not had the chance to do that yet, and we've got to get better at getting out the message, but I am not disheartened.” Asked about the turnout and fall in Reform votes, she added: “I think people are sick to death of elections.”
