A significant shift in Scottish political fortunes has been revealed by the latest YouGov survey, with Reform UK establishing a clear advantage over Scottish Labour in the race for second place ahead of May's Holyrood election.
Polling Numbers Reveal Dramatic Realignment
The comprehensive survey, conducted between January 8 and 14 with 1,113 Scottish respondents, places Nigel Farage's party on 20% support in both constituency and regional voting intentions. This represents a substantial five-point lead over Scottish Labour, which stands at 15% in both categories.
SNP Maintains Lead Despite Substantial Decline
While the Scottish National Party remains the front-runner with 34% support in constituencies and 29% on the regional list, these figures represent a dramatic fall from their 2021 Holyrood election performance. The party has experienced a fourteen-point drop from the 48% constituency support and 40% regional support recorded in the previous devolved election.
Conservative Collapse and Green Surge
The polling reveals particularly troubling news for the Scottish Conservatives, who have sunk to just 10% in constituencies and 11% on the regional list. This decline has allowed the Scottish Greens to overtake them into fourth place, with the environmental party jumping to 12% on the list and 9% in constituencies.
Liberal Democrat support remains relatively stable at 9% and 10% respectively, while the broader political landscape shows significant movement since the 2024 general election.
Voter Migration Patterns Emerge
The pollster's analysis of voting intention shifts reveals fascinating patterns of political realignment. Among respondents who backed Labour in the 2024 general election, 21% have now become undecided, while 14% have shifted their support to Reform UK and 13% now intend to vote for the SNP.
The Conservative Party has managed to retain just 48% of their previous support base, with 27% of former Tory voters now planning to back Reform UK and 17% moving into the undecided column.
Political Reactions to the Findings
Malcolm Offord, Reform UK's leader in Scotland and former Conservative peer, stated that the poll findings "reflect the reality we are hearing on the doorsteps." He offered a stark assessment of the political landscape, suggesting Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is "in the last-chance saloon" following what he described as "desperate attempts to escape Scottish Labour's toxic brand."
Offord further claimed that Sarwar's strategy of framing the election as a presidential contest between himself and SNP leader John Swinney has "backfired spectacularly." He pointed to the SNP's declining numbers, noting they represent "their lowest opinion poll share since John Swinney's disastrous first leadership of the party in 2003."
The Reform UK leader concluded by framing the upcoming election as "a clear two-horse race between a clapped-out SNP Government and new direction for Scotland with Reform."
Broader Implications for Scottish Politics
These polling figures, published on Thursday 29 January 2026, suggest a potentially transformative moment in Scottish politics as voters prepare to go to the polls in May. The substantial lead Reform UK has established over Scottish Labour for second place represents a remarkable development given the party's relatively recent establishment north of the border.
The significant decline in SNP support, combined with the Conservative collapse and Labour's failure to capitalise, indicates a period of unprecedented volatility in Scottish voting patterns. With Reform UK positioning itself as the primary challenger to SNP dominance, the political landscape appears poised for substantial reconfiguration as the Holyrood election approaches.
