Vladimir Putin is entering the most challenging period of his rule, with disillusionment spreading among Russian elites over the faltering war in Ukraine and the struggling economy, according to interviews with people close to the Russian leader, business sources, and Western intelligence officials.
One well-connected business leader described a shift in mood among the elite this year, noting 'profound disappointment in Putin' and a 'growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming.' The source added that 'people who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.'
Despite the cracks at home, Putin remains determined to press on with the war. He has told his inner circle that he believes Moscow can capture the entire Donbas region by the end of the year, according to two sources with access to the president. A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russian generals have convinced Putin that Donbas will be taken by year-end, but warned that 'fabricated reports are being fed up the chain of command, claiming victory is imminent.'
Military analysts say that at the current pace of advance, it could take Russia years to fully capture Donbas. A senior European intelligence official noted uncertainty about what Putin understands: 'Even if many around him understand the reality of the situation, we still don’t know what Putin himself understands.'
Putin has also lost faith in Donald Trump’s ability to pressure Kyiv into surrendering territory as part of a deal, according to sources. 'There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated,' one source in contact with Putin said.
