New Poll Forecasts Coalition Electoral Collapse and One Nation Surge
A stark new poll has delivered a devastating projection for the federal coalition, suggesting its electoral woes could deepen dramatically. The survey forecasts the opposition could be reduced to holding fewer than ten seats in parliament if an election were held imminently, potentially relegating it to the crossbench.
Detailed Seat Projections Reveal Major Shift
The DemosAU poll, released on Friday and surveying more than 8,400 people, provides a detailed and alarming outlook for the traditional major parties. It projects the coalition could win a mere nine to 17 seats. In a seismic shift, Pauline Hanson's One Nation is forecast to become the official opposition, with projections of winning between 46 and 55 federal electorates.
Meanwhile, the Labor Party is predicted to secure a third term in government, albeit with a reduced majority. The poll models Labor winning between 77 and 86 seats in the lower house, indicating a tighter political landscape despite their continued dominance.
One Nation's Widespread Electoral Gains
The polling, which used sophisticated modelling to gain predictions across all 150 federal electorates, reveals the depth of One Nation's surge. The party is shown taking the lead in nearly all electorates currently held by the Liberal and National parties. This includes the seat of Hume, represented by Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.
Furthermore, One Nation is projected to be ahead in several regional electorates traditionally held by Labor, demonstrating a broad-based appeal. These include:
- Gilmore in New South Wales
- Leichhardt in Queensland
- Braddon in Tasmania
- Hunter in New South Wales
George Hasanakos, Director of Research at DemosAU, stated that if these poll results hold true, the Liberals would indeed be relegated to the crossbench. He highlighted One Nation's inroads into Labor's vote, particularly in the urban fringes of major capital cities.
Urban Fringes and Regional Seats Become Battlegrounds
'We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne - places which have many new residents priced out of housing elsewhere,' Mr. Hasanakos explained.
He added, 'Labor is dominant in the inner to middle rings of capital cities but would have a fight on their hands in those urban fringes and in regional seats on these numbers.' This analysis points to a significant realignment of voter loyalties based on geographic and socio-economic factors.
Sustained Momentum and Major Party Response
This poll is the latest in a series of voter surveys indicating a sustained rise in support for One Nation at the direct expense of the coalition. The most recent Newspoll also showed One Nation commanding a higher primary vote than the coalition, placing the traditional opposition in an unprecedented third position.
With One Nation also tipped to perform strongly in the upcoming South Australian election, the question of sustainability arises. Mr. Hasanakos cautioned that it is too early to determine if the momentum behind One Nation will persist until the next federal election, which is not due until 2028 at the latest.
'The surge in support has certainly sent a message to the major parties and we can expect the coalition especially to focus its efforts on winning back the voters it has lost to One Nation,' he said.
He noted that this process of recalibration has already begun, citing the recent leadership changes within the coalition parties. 'That process has already started with the leadership of the coalition parties switching to Angus Taylor for the Liberals and Matt Canavan for the Nationals, both of whom could be seen as more appealing to the cohort of voters lost to One Nation than their predecessors.' This suggests a strategic pivot by the coalition to recapture its lost base in the face of a formidable new political force.
