More than 2 million people are eligible to vote on 30 July in the race to succeed Andy Burnham as Greater Manchester mayor, making it the biggest byelection in British history. Even with a turnout of about 30%, the verdict of over 600,000 voters will help answer fundamental questions facing each main party: whether Keir Starmer's resignation resurrects Labour, or if Nigel Farage can deliver a blow to Burnham's likely premiership.
Significance of the Contest
Luke Tryl, executive director of the More in Common thinktank, said: "This byelection is hugely significant on lots of levels. Andy Burnham's premiership would get off to quite a bad start if Labour lost. It's England's second city and so who runs it has huge significance because it elevates them on to the national stage."
The mayor of Greater Manchester controls a £3bn annual budget and powers over housing, health, policing and transport. The city has grown faster economically than anywhere else in the UK over the past decade.
Electoral Dynamics
Burnham never won less than 60% of the vote in each of his three victories since 2017. However, Reform UK was the biggest winner in Greater Manchester just seven weeks ago, gaining 106 councillors and wiping out Labour strongholds in Wigan, Tameside and Rochdale.
Privately, some Labour insiders expect its vote share to be at least 10 percentage points down on Burnham's 63.4% in 2024. The contest will be decided by the supplementary voting system: if no single party achieves 50%, second-choice preferences come into play. Labour is widely seen as having an advantage as they are more likely to be picked as the second choice of Greens, Lib Dems and even some Conservatives. Reform UK cannot count on such broad support.
Tryl added: "There are big questions about whether Reform are just too polarising to pick up second preferences. The real battle almost becomes who makes it into that second round. That will give us our first test of whether Burnham has managed to reunite the left and squeeze the Greens."
Labour's Candidate and Campaign
Labour's candidate, Bev Craig, leader of Manchester city council, said the loss of 108 councillors only seven weeks ago was "sobering", particularly in urban Manchester wards where the Greens won 17 seats, in part over anger about Starmer's position on Gaza. Reform won 106 seats overall, including all but one of the 25 up for grabs in Wigan and 18 out of 19 in Tameside, once solidly Labour areas.
Yet with Starmer gone, Craig said she was "really confident that with the change of leader the protest votes we saw in the May local elections will return back to the Labour party." Craig, who took over the city council five years ago aged 36, has promised free bus travel for all 11- to 18-year-olds and will next week unveil a new town centres fund.
Green Party's Rise
The Green party is vying to turn its recent Manchester success into its first big seat of power. Geraldine Coggins, the Green candidate, said her party's "unprecedented" wins – not just in Gorton and Denton, but making inroads in Bolton and Salford and securing 37% of the vote in Manchester – showed that voters finally believed it could beat the two big parties. "In the past people didn't think we could win and we have really put all those myths to bed," she said. "It's shown that actually it's Greens and Reform winning across Greater Manchester."
Despite a poll last week putting Labour just three points ahead of Reform UK, within the margin of error, and the Green party in a distant third, Polanski's party is delivering leaflets claiming "It's Green or Reform in Greater Manchester" with a chart suggesting Labour's support has fallen by 40 percentage points in the region over the past two years.
Reform UK's Position
Farage has suffered two humiliating defeats in parliamentary byelections in this corner of England, losses made worse by the rapid rise of Rupert Lowe's hardline Restore Britain. The Reform UK leader appears increasingly embattled as he is dogged by questions about the £5m donation from crypto tycoon Christopher Harborne and growing scrutiny of his wealth.
